294 [Speculative War]
Fudan MBA class.
This class talks about "entrepreneurship is the core competitiveness of listed companies." Lin Zhuoyun held a book called "Draft History of Chinese New Literature" and sat in the last row with a smile on her face - she was waiting to go to the movie with Song Weiyang.
Song Weiyang looked at his watch, threw the chalk, and sat on the podium and said, "There are two more classes in this semester. I will not teach you the next semester. I have compiled the lecture notes for "Entrepreneurship" and will be published by Fudan University Press. Currently, Fudan and Tongji have decided to use it as MBA course textbooks. In other words, 'Entrepreneurship' will be taught in the future, but it is not me, but other professors will teach you. The get out of class will be finished in ten minutes. Let's talk about something casually. Students with questions can also ask questions."
A student suddenly raised his hand: "Teacher, a financial magazine said that you made more than 90 million in the stock market last year, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange called you the 'stock god'. Is this true?"
Song Weiyang smiled and said, "How can there be 90 million? It's less than 80 million after deducting taxes and fees."
As soon as these words came out, the classroom exclaimed in surprise.
Rumors in the world are one thing, but the parties involved confirm that it is another. These students are about 30 years old and have seen a lot of things, but they still cannot imagine that they make 80 million in stock trading.
Another student said: "Teacher, teach us how to trade stocks."
Song Weiyang said: "If you don't need to teach, you can't teach. I'm not a financial teacher."
"Then what's your trick to make money by trading stocks?" the students asked.
Song Weiyang smiled and said, "Just last year's market, I can make money by individual stock trading, as long as I don't be too greedy."
Another student asked: "What information did you leave in time based on?"
Song Weiyang said: "There are information everywhere. In October last year, the securities regulatory authorities awarded twelve gold medals to cool down the stock market. Everyone can see these news. Those who are not stupid should stop. Later, the ones trapped are all because of greed. I didn't leave the market at the highest point. The stock I bought rose several more yuan later."
A student said: "Now, financial magazines report on Soros' battle against the Thai Baht every day. What do Teacher Song thinks?"
"You are studying MBA in Fudan. Why are you all so interested in financial securities?" Song Weiyang smiled.
"Business administration is also inseparable from capital operation," said a student.
Song Weiyang put away his smile and asked back: "Do you know why international speculators led by Soros are targeting Thailand?"
A student replied: "Thailand is a small country, with a small size and is easy to operate."
Song Weiyang said: "Singapore is smaller, why doesn't Soros go to trouble Singapore?"
"Well..." the student couldn't answer.
"Soros targeted Thailand instead of choosing other Asian countries is an inevitable behavior, and it is by no means accidental," Song Weiyang explained. "We often say that the four Asian dragons are developing rapidly, and Thailand, one of the four Asian tigers, is also amazing. From the 1970s to the 1980s, Thailand's annual GDP growth rate was 10%, which was so rich. But at that time, Thailand's foreign exchange management system was relatively strict, and there was no chance of international speculators coming out. Why Soros now stared at Thailand and traced the root cause is because China wanted to take back the port city in 1997."
The students looked at each other, and even Lin Zhuoyun was surprised. They couldn't figure out what Soros' attack on the Thai Baht had to do with the return of Hong Kong City.
Song Weiyang continued: "After entering the 1990s, as Hong Kong City returns, Hong Kong people are disintegrating and the financial order appears to be more chaotic. The Thai government feels that its opportunity has come and wants to compete with Hong Kong City and build Thailand into an Asian financial center. To this end, the Thai government has changed its financial management system and allowed foreign financial institutions to freely enter and exit Thailand without the supervision of the Central Bank of Thailand. Do you know what this means?"
A student estimated that he had studied economy before and immediately said: "I understand that it is not unfair to Thailand be attacked by Soros. Doing this by the Thai government means that foreign capital can enter and exit Thailand's real estate and securities markets at will. What's more terrifying is that there is a lack of supervision from the Bank of Thailand, foreigners can freely borrow Thai baht, and the foreign exchange futures market in Thai baht has no defensiveness."
"Yes, that's it," said Song Weiyang. "In fact, Soros had a tentative attack on the Thai baht two years ago. However, due to the good economic situation in Thailand, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have confidence in Thailand. In addition, the timely intervention of the Central Bank of Thailand, Soros' tentative attack did not work."
The previous student asked: "What about this year? Can the Thai government win this financial war like it did two years ago?"
Song Weiyang smiled and said, "This year is different. In 1996, Thailand completely relaxed its supervision of foreign capital and demolished its last fortress. International hot money poured in, hot money was everywhere, and the stock market and real estate market were completely bubbled. Land and housing prices soared, stock prices hit new highs, and people borrowed loans to buy cars and houses. Thailand is a scene of peace and prosperity. In addition, the appreciation of the US dollar has led to the appreciation of the Thai baht at a fixed exchange rate, causing Thailand's exports to plummet, Thai companies began to decline day by day, and banks showed a large number of bad debts. This false and prosperous economic bubble bursts with one punch."
"But the Thai government has repelled two waves of attacks from Soros this year," the student said. "And the Bank of Thailand has also raised short-term interest rates, which has greatly increased the cost of foreign investment speculation. It has also bought a large amount of Thai baht from the foreign exchange market. The spot exchange rate of Thai baht has stabilized. No matter how powerful the quantum funds are, it is impossible to defeat a country, right?"
Song Weiyang smiled and said, "Please note that it is not a repulsion, but just a temporary successful defense. This defense has cost Thailand a heavy price, and its foreign exchange reserves are almost gone. Although the high interest rate increases the cost of foreign investment speculation, it has made the already difficult Thai manufacturing industry worse, and the bad debt problems of banks and enterprises are completely exposed. Especially the latter, the most critical. If Thailand's industry and commerce continue to flourish, international organizations and individuals will continue to wait and see, and even be optimistic about Thailand. But the bad debt problems of Thai companies and banks are exposed, it will be miserable. The smell of blood will attract more sharks and help Soros bite Thailand to death."
"So, Soros will win this time?" the student asked.
"Of course." Song Weiyang nodded.
"Since Teacher Song sees it so thoroughly, don't you plan to go to Thailand to make a vote?" the student said.
Song Weiyang smiled and said, "Since March, I have made a lot of long-term short positions in Thai baht. I have already sold several short positions in stages, so I have made some pocket money. The remaining short positions depend on the decisive battle between Soros and the Thai government. I believe Soros will win because he is not fighting alone."
"Teacher Song, can you take us to short the Thai baht?" said several students.
"It's too late," said Song Weiyang. "Just half a month ago, the Thai government was forced to ban banks from lending Thai baht to international speculators under the situation. The Thai government even threatened and induced banks to provide customer information on forward Thai baht short orders, including my Taurus Capital, which were blacklisted by the Thai government. Now Thailand's overnight lending interest rate is so high that your little money is probably not enough to hold on to the Thai baht plummet."
In fact, Soros and others are also in a difficult situation now. After all, they are fighting against a government, and the other party has too many attacks on the outside.
In order to suppress the Thai baht, Soros even sold the US Treasury bonds in his hands to raise funds, and he couldn't bear it even if he had less money. Thailand also convinced Singapore, Hong Kong City and Malaysia to enter the field to fight back, and his lips were dead. The current situation is that international capital is fighting against the New Zealand, Malaysia, Thailand, and Hong Kong coalition forces.
It depends on who can't hold on first.
Chapter completed!