Guan Sha was originally very repulsive when she became a live streaming anchor, but when she was struggling with the live broadcast room of her twin sisters and was in a dilemma on whether to cooperate with Ni Die, she was not completely unshakable.

In the Internet era, it seems that only those who dare to expose themselves can get traffic, and those who have traffic can get the right to speak and unlimited business opportunities.

Since the start-up capital is so limited, shouldn’t we play cards without following the usual routines and give full play to our own advantages and give it a try?

Through unremitting efforts, Ni Die owns his own company, his own factory, and has several houses in Qingyang Jingcheng District; and Yun Xiabai's life trajectory is even more inspiring. He has gone from a fishmonger's son in a small mountain village to a top internet celebrity anchor with tens of millions of fans. The price of his mountain view villa even had to hesitate before Guan Sha's father bought it.

Just when Guan Sha's prejudice against the host of goods began to be wiped out by huge interests, Xiao Jie's words "wrong" made her alert.

"Let me give you an example," said Xiao Jie. "There was an example in the United States. There was a computer scientist named Alan Downey. He did an experiment to understand how many students there are in each class in a school through investigation.

He found something very interesting. The conclusions drawn by different investigation methods are not only different, but also have a big gap.

The school Alan Downey investigated at the time was Purdue University in the United States. He went to the Academic Affairs Office to ask for data directly. This data is naturally the result of the clerks in the Academic Affairs Office dividing the total number of students in the school by the total number of classes. There are an average of 35 people in each class.

Logically, this number is accurate, but when Alan Downey randomly interviews students on campus and asks them how many people they are in total, the result is that there are an average of 90 people in each class. Think about it, why is the difference so big?"

At this time, the waiter began to put the refreshments on the table one after another, but no one moved his chopsticks, and everyone's attention was on Xiao Jie.

Xiao Jie did not expect Guan Sha or Du Jing to answer. He gave the answer directly, "Because random interviews at school are actually random checks. There is a problem with the random check method, that is, the more students there are, the greater the probability that you will draw students. In other words, because there are more students in the 90-person class, the more likely you will be to be drawn by you than the 35-person class, so the results obtained by random checks are often much greater than the actual results."

After hearing this, Du Jing blinked her eyes, looked at Guan Sha, and then Jiang Yifan, not knowing what Xiao Jie wanted to express.

"Yifan, you should remember this example too, right?" Xiao Jie asked Jiang Yifan.

Jiang Yifan nodded and said that the statistics professor who once taught Xiao Jie later changed jobs to Jiang Yifan's school, so Xiao Jie and Jiang Yifan met at an academic event held by the teacher at that time.

Jiang Yifan explained to Guan Sha and Du Jing, "In fact, the point of view to be discussed in this investigation is the paradox of inspection, that is, the phenomenon we observe by chance often differs greatly from the essence of this matter."

Jiang Yifan then gave another similar example.

This example is "the prisoner's sentence".

If we randomly check prisoners in prison and ask them how long their sentence is, many prisoners will give a big number, such as ten years and twenty years, or even sixty or seventy years.

But if we ask the warden for the average number of years of sentence for all prisoners, the exact number given by the warden after checking all prison documents is only 3.6 years.

Why is the difference between the two so big?

This is the paradox of the inspection, because many prisoners who serve short sentences may have been released from prison during our random inspections, so those who are still under investigation are more likely to be those who serve long sentences.

"Better to be closer to life." Xiao Jie took Jiang Yifan's words, "You usually think that there are a lot of passengers on the plane and the plane is quite crowded. You think airlines should be quite profitable, with so many people and such poor travel experience, so the fare should be reduced."

Guan Sha agrees with what Xiao Jie said. She usually takes a plane, with people in front, back and left and right, and there are indeed few empty seats.

"But in fact, airlines may be losing money." Xiao Jie continued, "because it is easier for us to take flights with more people. After all, there are more people, and the chances included are greater. We don't have much chance to take flights with less people. So if we go to the terminal to randomly survey passengers, many people may say that the flights are crowded, but the real data on the airline may be that there are not a few people per plane on average, and the company will lose money if it does not maintain a high fare."

"There are no chances to board a flight with few people..." Du Jing scratched her head and repeated this argument unconsciously. She understood the conclusions afterwards, and didn't seem to understand some of the words in the middle. She blamed her for being a poor student since she was a child, and she had to count from behind to front.

"Or I'll change another example." Xiao Jie was very patient. "If you are a traffic light, for you, the time of the red light and the time of the green light are likely to be the same, accounting for 50% each. But if you go to the street to interview drivers randomly, most people often give you the answer that the red light is longer than the green light, because they don't need to stop the green light, but the red light must stop and wait. The waiting time is definitely greater than the time when you don't need to stop without any obstacles. So they recalled afterwards that it seemed that every intersection always had a long time for red lights, and it seemed that they always encountered red lights."

"I understand what you said." Guan Sha continued, "Do you want to say that when we look at anchors, it is easier to see those anchors with many fans and very successful people, while those anchors with very few fans and few people can't see them, so we think that being an anchor seems to be very easy to succeed and make a lot of money."

"Yes." Xiao Jie nodded with satisfaction, while Du Jing took advantage of everyone's carefree food because she was too hungry.

"Come on, eat first." Jiang Yifan said hurriedly.

When Guan Sha saw that everyone moved their chopsticks, she also symbolically picked up a piece of ribs.

She put the ribs in a bowl and flipped them back and forth, without eating them.

After Xiao Jie almost finished eating the food in his mouth, Guan Sha asked, "Mr. Xiao, we actually learned about the industry situation when we went to the live broadcast base. There are indeed countless small and medium-sized anchors who have difficulty making money. However, in the Internet era, despite the many competitors, I think as long as you have real skills, you can succeed, right? For example, it is very likely that a new anchor will surpass Ni Die and Yun Xiabai tomorrow."

Xiao Jie put down his chopsticks and admitted, "It's possible, but this is statistically a small probability event and is almost impossible to happen. Of course, if you stretch the time dimension long enough, there will definitely be someone who surpasses Ni Die and Yun Xiabai, but I'm afraid your start-up capital and your entrepreneurial time limit... will not last that time."

"Brother Xiao! Don't say that. Look at our Guan Sha's face, maybe it will be popular as soon as it started. The next super anchor is her!"

Xiao Jie smiled and took a sip of tea, shook his head slightly.

I have to say that Guan Sha was very dissatisfied with Xiao Jie's movement of shaking his head.

She may not want to do this subjectively, but if someone denies her ability and thinks that she will definitely not do this well, she will be dissatisfied with one million.

"Mr. Xiao, why don't you encourage the younger generation? I haven't started yet. How do you know I can't do it?" Guan Sha looked very gentle, but she wanted to hang Xiao Jie up and beat him up.
Chapter completed!