Chapter 7 Intuition
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"Prime Minister, you don't think I am a war madman, right? "After putting down the teacup, Mu Haoyang sat on the sofa opposite Du Xiaolei. "We have known each other for more than 20 years. I have always been an active anti-war element, because the soldiers who died in the war were bleeding and sacrificed their lives."
"Mr. Mu, I know very well who you are."
"Yeah?".
"In the past, Lu Gong often mentioned you in front of me."
Mu Haoyang smiled and knew that Du Xiaolei and Lu Wen were very good at talking.
"I believe in your judgment and believe that what you do is for the national interest, but at this time, I still hope that you can make greater contributions."
“What contribution?”
"Tomorrow, I will fly to Washington to have a face-to-face meeting with US Secretary of State Conrad, so I hope you can help."
Mu Haoyang didn't speak, waiting for Du Xiaolei to continue talking.
"If possible, we should resolve this crisis as much as possible."
"Do you think it's possible?".
Du Xiaolei smiled and said, "My views are not important, our understanding is not important. The key is whether we have made all our efforts for peace."
"Prime Minister, you should know that I am a realist."
"Of course, diplomats are realists too."
"Then, you should know that our efforts will not have any value or reward."
"If it's just for reward, isn't that too utilitarian?"
Mu Haoyang smiled and shook his head, saying, "National interests and national interests are utilitarian in nature, and everything we do should have a clear purpose."
"Then our purpose is to strive for peace as much as possible."
"Obviously, this is not your and my problem, or even my problem."
"At least, we should do what we should do. As for how the other party chooses, we cannot decide and we will not have any extravagant hopes."
Mu Haoyang nodded thoughtfully, as if he understood what Du Xiaolei meant.
"Mr. Mu, appropriate concessions are not retreating, nor is it a manifestation of cowardice. At least in Eastern culture, this is a noble character worthy of praise."
"Well, what do you want me to do?"
"Don't mobilize the fleet for the time being to convey a peace message to the United States."
"Do you think there will be a result?"
"Maybe, even if the hope is slim, it's worth trying."
Mu Haoyang pondered for a while and said, "Okay, I can do this. The Pacific Fleet will maintain the status quo. As long as the United States no longer sends additional fleets to Australia, the Indian Ocean Fleet will not take a large-scale move. In short, we cannot make unilateral concessions."
“This is enough.”
"When will you go to the United States?"
"Tomorrow morning, it should be early in the morning when you arrive."
"Okay, stay in touch at any time."
Du Xiaolei didn't delay much, she also had to go to the State Council to handle related matters.
After Du Xiaolei left, Mu Haoyang called Zhou Yusheng and Zhang Yuting over.
"Doing this is equivalent to showing weakness to the United States and will not do us any benefit."
"Showing weakness is secondary, which will make the situation more difficult to understand." Zhang Yuting breathed and said, "According to our previous judgment, after our army mobilized before the war, the United States will definitely speed up the pace of war and launch a war by sneaking attacks on our naval bases. The problem now is that if our fleet is active at sea, even if the naval base is destroyed, the fleet will not be affected in the short term, and the United States will not be able to take the initiative after the war begins. In other words, this is likely to make the United States give up the idea of going to war. The problem is that doing so cannot avoid war, but it only delays the arrival of the war. It will be more difficult for us to make accurate judgments on the actions of the US military in the future, and it will be difficult to take targeted preventive measures, which is equivalent to missing the opportunity to turn defeat into victory."
"Do you think the Prime Minister's trip can achieve results?"
Zhou Yusheng and Zhang Yuting were both stunned, and then shook their heads.
"My judgment is the same as you, the Prime Minister's trip to Washington will not receive any results." Mu Haoyang paused and said, "When the Prime Minister came to me, he also mentioned this issue, that is, we are just doing what we should do, and the ending is not in our control at all. It is obvious that the Prime Minister does not have much hope for the trip to Washington, but she must go to Washington."
"you mean……"
"In the current situation, no matter how much concessions we make, war will break out, or the United States will launch wars in the near future."
"this……"
"The reason is very simple. The United States has no way out." Mu Haoyang smiled and said, "After a year and a half, the situation will become very unfavorable to the United States. Even if the national economy is not considered, in terms of military strength, with the second batch of "Tarshan"-class aircraft carriers launched next year, the US Navy will lose its slight advantage. The United States will definitely launch a war before this, and now may be the only opportunity."
"So, even if we don't let the fleet return to port, will the United States still start a war?"
"It will definitely be, but there is a lot of flexibility in time. Maybe not this year, but at the beginning of next year." Mu Haoyang glanced at Zhang Yuting and said, "If this is the case, the situation will become difficult to predict, and we cannot make accurate judgments on the actions that the US military may take."
"Then why do you still agree to the Prime Minister's request?"
Mu Haoyang smiled and said, "If the Prime Minister's negotiations in Washington do not achieve substantial results, such as the United States did not withdraw the fleet sent to Australia, then we have reason to conduct pre-war mobilization, that is, to return the fleet to the port as originally planned. For the United States, this is an opportunity that cannot be missed, because within a year after that, the United States will not be able to obtain the same opportunity. By a year later, with our new aircraft carrier launched, it will be even harder for the United States to get the chance to defeat us in one fell swoop."
"That is, the United States will definitely launch a war at this time."
Mu Haoyang nodded and said, "For us, this is a very accurate time point, so being able to judge the timing of the United States' war more accurately will enable targeted prevention and reduce the losses we suffered in the early stages of the war."
Zhang Yuting nodded thoughtfully, as if he understood what Mu Haoyang meant.
"In fact, what we do is to predict more accurately the time when the United States launches a surprise attack in order to reduce the losses caused by the sudden attack." Mu Haoyang knocked on the handrail of the sofa and said, "No matter what, we must withstand the sudden attack of the US military in order to turn the situation around after the war begins, otherwise the situation will become very unfavorable and may even make us lose this war."
"What are you going to do?"
"I have already agreed with the Prime Minister that she will promptly inform the negotiations."
"this……"
"Of course, this is not enough." Mu Haoyang smiled and said, "You must not have the intention to harm others, but you must be guarded against others. I came to you to tell you that after the Prime Minister arrives in Washington, the war may break out at any time, so we must be prepared for the worst."
Zhou Yusheng and Zhang Yuting both nodded and waited for Mu Haoyang to continue talking.
"First of all, the submarine force must maintain a 50% voyage rate. If the fleet suffers severe damage, the submarine will be the most important and even the only combat force we have in the early stages of the war." Mu Haoyang glanced at Zhou Yusheng and said, "Relatively speaking, the whereabouts of the submarine are relatively hidden, and our submarine base is mainly cavernous, so the deployment of the submarine force is more confidential. I have no clear requirements on how to do it, but just emphasize one thing, that is, try to avoid contact with the US military before the war breaks out."
Zhou Yusheng nodded and said, "No problem, I'll go and deploy it right away."
"Remember to contact the submarine being patrolled."
Zhou Yusheng didn't say much, nodded and agreed.
"Old Zhang, you have to go to the Indian Ocean Fleet."
“Guadal Port?”
Mu Haoyang nodded and said, "Although there is no definite information, the intuition tells me that if the war breaks out, the Indian Ocean will be the first battlefield of decisive battle. To put it simply, the US military will first launch an attack on the Indian Ocean and will first deal with the Indian Ocean fleet."
"What do you want me to do?"
"The fleet must stay in the port, but be prepared to leave the port at any time. As long as you receive the message, you must leave the port immediately to avoid sudden blows."
"Okay, I'll rush over today."
"Remember to call up the fleet officers and soldiers to explain the current situation."
"Do you want to explain the situation to the Pakistan Navy?"
"There is no need for this for the time being, and we cannot count on the Pakistani Navy."
Zhang Yuting nodded and said, "What should we do if the war breaks out and the fleet leaves Gwadar Port?"
"Be careful first, without absolute certainty, don't contact the US military." Mu Haoyang breathed a sigh of relief and said, "I'm not afraid of something, but there are enough reasons to make us believe that the situation in the early stages of the war is not very beneficial to us, so we can preserve the strength of the fleet. As long as the fleet is still there, we have the opportunity to turn defeat into victory. If we don't even have this foundation, we will not be far from defeat."
"Okay, I know what to do."
"I will keep you updated on the latest situation in a timely manner, and you must also report on the situation in a timely manner."
Zhang Yuting nodded and agreed.
After talking about some matters related to the navy, Mu Haoyang sent Zhou Yusheng and Zhang Yuting away, and then called Yan Yingbo, who was staying in the Navy Command, and asked him to appropriately adjust the deployment and patrol arrangements of the naval shore-based aviation force and enhance the patrol force in the Western Pacific.
After doing this, Mu Haoyang felt more and more uneasy.
It can be said that the deeper you think, the stronger the feeling that the war is about to break out.
After so many wars, Mu Haoyang rarely doubted his intuition, and sometimes he even wanted to believe in intuition, because it was not just intuition, but the experience accumulated by his service for more than 40 years and commanding dozens of wars of all sizes, which are the most precious wealth of a senior general.
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Chapter completed!