Chapter 82 Opportunities for the European Union
The game between big powers has become the mainstream trend in the world.
In the foreseeable future, not only China and the United States are global major powers, but even the EU and Russia may become major powers with global influence, especially the EU.
After the Second Korean War, the EU's integration process was greatly accelerated. [bsp; The biggest impact was not this war, but the successor effect of the war, that is, China's role on the international stage is becoming more and more important, and the United States' strategic position was weakened. Although Europe is far away from hot spots and the surrounding situation is relatively stable, for the EU, after the United States turns into a strategic contraction, it has to consider a crucial issue, that is, foreign policies based on alliances with the United States can effectively safeguard Europe's interests, enhance Europe's influence around the world, and bring substantial benefits to Europe.
This is undoubtedly a very prominent issue.
After the Second Korean War, as the global financial crisis receded, China and the United States were the first to recover, and this problem became more realistic.
You should know that Europe's recovery speed is far less than that of China and the United States.
Although the international environment has improved and the EU has also gained substantial benefits. For example, after the increase in foreign investment, the EU economy began to recover and the serious sovereign debt crisis receded quickly, China and the United States have successively introduced local economic policies and established an economic circle with their own country as the core, which has posed more severe challenges to the EU. To put it bluntly, in an era when major powers dominate the international order, the global free trade system will inevitably fall apart, and the competition for markets and resources will become increasingly fierce, and the EU has no advantage in this competition.
For the EU, the most urgent task is to expand its influence.
To this end, the EU must become a close unified country, rather than a loose national community.
In fact, the fatal problems of the EU were exposed during the global financial crisis.
After the outbreak of the sovereign debt crisis, a large number of economists pointed out that the crisis itself is not that the European economy is unhealthy, but that the foundation of the euro is not solid enough, that is, each member state in the euro zone pursues different economic policies, and the wrong policies of any member state will have an impact on the entire euro zone. Without a unified Ministry of Finance, a unified currency can only bring about a large number of difficult problems. The sovereign debt crisis starting from Greece is only one of the many problems in the EU economic system. To solve these problems, political unity must be achieved, and a government manages the entire euro zone to ensure that there is no problem in decisions such as fiscal expenditure that have a significant impact on the economy. Without a unified government, the EU's sovereign debt crisis is only covered up by the momentum of the improvement of the economy and has not been fundamentally resolved. In the next financial and even economic crisis, the EU may not be so lucky.
For the EU, the Second Korean War is definitely an opportunity.
The reason is very simple. After the defeat of North Korea, the United States had to pursue a strategic contraction policy and shift its strategic focus to the surrounding areas of China, especially the Western Pacific. Therefore, it had to relax its control over Europe and, in many cases, it had to seek EU support.
To put it simply, the EU has gained more autonomy.
In 2015, at the EU Leaders' Summit, the leaders of France, Germany and Italy expressed that they had the responsibility and obligation to promote the European integration process, and on the basis of economic integration, they would first achieve all defense and then start political integration.
In the following five years, the European legions led by France, Germany and Italy, led by France, Germany and Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Spain, Portugal, Austria, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Greece, Croatia, Estonia, Slovenia and Latvia expanded three times, with the standing military force increasing to eight brigades and the military bases increasing to thirty-two.
In 2021, France and Germany took the lead in forming the "European Joint Navy".
The following year, France, Germany and Italy began to integrate air power.
In 2023, a military coup occurred in Tunisia. The Islamic Revolutionary Armed Forces overthrew the elected government. The EU quickly sent troops to intervene. The "European Legion" showed strong combat effectiveness as a major force participating in the war for the first time in this military operation that lasted less than a month.
Of course, in military terms, this intervention is simply not a problem.
However, in politics, this action gave European leaders, especially the leaders of France, Germany and Italy, a lot of confidence, and made them realize the importance of establishing a unified country.
The most direct impact is that the European Legion began to gradually replace the United States and become the cornerstone of European security.
By 2029, the size of the European Legion had reached 850,000, including 400,000 ground troops, 200,000 navy, and 250,000 air force, with 28 brigades, more than 130 large ships, more than 1,300 combat aircraft, and a foreign legion with a size of about 5,000 people.
At that time, the French President formally declared that France was willing and capable of providing strategic security guarantees for EU member states.
In anyone's eyes, this is a direct manifestation of France's challenge to American authority.
You should know that before that, European countries, even EU member states, had strategic security guarantees based on the NATO organization led by the United States. That is to say, for these countries, the EU is only an economic, political and diplomatic alliance, while NATO is a security alliance.
Of course, the French president did not brag.
According to the provisions of the "Washington Treaty", France has sufficient strategic strike capabilities, which is enough to provide security guarantees for EU member states.
More importantly, the situation around Europe is relatively stable and there is no substantial threat.
Although the Middle East is close, it is still a relatively distant region for Europe, because neither Israel nor Arab countries have the ability to threaten the EU.
If you want to talk about threats, Iran is the only one.
In 2012, Iran imposed an oil embargo on the EU, which still makes Europeans remember it fresh.
The problem is that even the threat from Iran is not so prominent. The reason is very simple. Iran's attitude towards the EU is largely influenced by the United States, that is, when the EU acts as a thug of the United States, Iran will pose a threat to the EU. If the EU pursues an independent foreign policy, no longer joins the United States, and no longer takes the blame for the United States, then Iran has no reason to threaten the EU.
The French president stood up and shouted at this time, which was in line with the interests of other European powers, especially the European continent's powers.
In 2031, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, Poland and Austria were the first to negotiate political integration.
According to the agreement reached at the 2030 EU Leaders' Summit, political integration will be carried out in stages.
The "stage" mentioned here mainly refers to the region, not the degree of integration.
This time, it was not France but Germany that took the first step.
In 2032, Germany and Austria conducted separate political integration negotiations, namely, forming a coalition government and completing unification in the form of a federal government.
In fact, this is also the easiest step.
Austria is also a Germanic country. It was once the number one power of the German Federation in history and fought with Prussia, which later unified Germany for more than a hundred years. After World War I, in order to prevent Germany from growing again, the Allies banned the merger of Germany and Austria. After World War II, Germany split again with Austria and never became a unified Germanic country.
In any case, Germany and Austria have an ethnic foundation for the unification.
More importantly, within the EU system, the economy of Germany and Austria has been highly integrated, and 80% of German companies have businesses in Austria. For example, Mercedes-Benz's largest automobile assembly plant is in Austria, and Austrian companies also have a place in the German economy.
With both national and economic foundations, it is no longer difficult to achieve political unity.
By the time the Sino-Japanese War broke out, the unification negotiations between Germany and Austria had reached the beginning and end stage. Both sides recognized the most basic political model, namely, to form the Great German Federation, Austria would gain autonomy except diplomacy and military, and replace the constitutions of the two countries with the federal constitution.
Unfortunately, the Sino-Japanese War and the subsequent natural disasters affected the process of unification of Germany and Austria.
If Germany and Austria can achieve unity, then Hungary and Czech Republic also have hope of being incorporated into the Great German Federation, which will surely become the basis for Europe to achieve political unification.
Of course, it is definitely not an easy task to achieve political unity in Europe.
The most important thing is that ethnic differences cannot be eliminated.
Not to mention the smaller nations, the unification negotiations between Germany and Austria caused a strong response in France. More than half of the French believe that this is a direct threat to France's dominance in the European continent, because the unified Germans must be France's strongest competitor. For the arrogant French, they will definitely not tolerate a government dominated by the Germans.
This is not only a problem for France, but also a problem for other European countries.
For example, Spain, Italy, and even countries like Poland, most citizens will not accept a government controlled by other nations.
So, is it feasible to form a multi-ethnic government?
At least around 2036, there was no hope. First, whether this multi-ethnic government can effectively resolve differences among ethnic groups, secondly, whether the administrative efficiency of the multi-ethnic government is higher than that of the EU, and finally, there is still a dispute over dominance between the multi-ethnic governments.
For European countries, there is no deep pain in learning, and it is certainly impossible to recognize the importance of unity.
This lesson must not only be deeply painful, but must also happen near Europe and have a large enough impact on Europe so that those Europeans who still put national interests first, especially social elites, realize that Europe, which is scattered and combative, will never gain global influence, and it is even more impossible to become an important force in the era of great power games, and Europe's interests will not be guaranteed.
Chapter completed!