.Chapter 49 Put aside fantasy

Mu Haoyang did not rush to return to Guangzhou, but began to complete the details of the second phase of the arms adjustment plan.

In the next few days, he spent the second session and talked with Li Mingyang several times.

The signs of Japan's military expansion and preparation for war have been very obvious, the most significant is the defense budget for the fiscal years 2033 to 2034.

According to the information provided by Li Mingyang, in the budget for the new fiscal year starting in April 2033, defense funds accounted for 17% of the total fiscal budget of the Japanese central government, second only to the social welfare budget, an increase of 21% over the previous fiscal year, the highest growth rate after 2024. Seventy-five percent of the growing defense budget will be used to purchase weapons and equipment.

In fact, this is not the point.

In this fiscal year, there were several secret budgets with a total amount of nearly 150 trillion yen, or about 980 billion US dollars. According to Japanese law, these secret budgets will not be released in Congress, but will only be audited by the Special Committee of Congress when the fiscal year is completed. That is to say, the money has great flexibility and can be used anywhere.

According to Li Mingyang's estimate, this one hundred and fifty trillion is Japan's secret military expenditure.

Taking this money into account, Japan's defense budget in the next fiscal year will account for 29% of the total budget, eight percentage points higher than the social welfare budget, becoming the largest fiscal budget, and the total military expenditure will also reach a record 237 billion US dollars.

Even if factors such as inflation and currency depreciation are deducted, this is equivalent to US$600 billion in 2012.

If this is true, Japan will surpass the United States and China in 2033 and become the world's largest military expenditure country. You should know that China's military budget in the 2033 to 2034 was only 86 trillion yuan, about 190 billion US dollars, while the United States' military budget in the same fiscal year was 210 billion US dollars, including nearly 400 billion US dollars in war expenses.

In terms of proportion, the gap is even more amazing.

China's military budget in the new fiscal year only accounts for 16% of the central government's fiscal budget and 5% of the GDP...5. The two proportions of the United States are 18% and 4% respectively, both controlled within a relatively reasonable range. Japan's defense expenditure will account for 6.8% of the GDP, which has exceeded the five-percent red line.

According to internationally recognized standards, if military spending exceeds 5% will have a negative impact on the economy.

A ratio of up to 6.8% will inevitably have a serious impact on the Japanese economy.

Obviously, for the sake of war, Japan no longer cared about the economy.

Even so, Japan's military expansion speed is still not enough to make its military power surpass China in the short term, and the threat is not obvious.

The real focus is Japan's adjustments to its economic structure.

According to the information provided by Li Mingyang, the Japanese cabinet will submit a new tax bill to Congress at the latest in early March to make a comprehensive adjustment to the tax structure.

After the adjustment, large enterprises involved in military industry such as Mitsubishi, Shimama, Kawasaki, Fuji will receive tax exemptions, and even financial subsidies, while tax rates in other industries will be increased. To put it bluntly, Japan will inject capital into the military industry through tax adjustments.

In this way, Japan's defense budget is definitely not the little money on the books.

In Li Mingyang's view, through tax exemption and financial subsidies, Japanese military-industrial enterprises will receive additional income of about US$4 trillion in the fiscal years 2033 to 2034. At least half of this money will be used to purchase strategic materials that Japan lacks in China and expand production scale, while the other half will be used to offset the cost of arms procurement, that is, to purchase arms through indirect allocations.

There is no doubt that this is the real highlight.

Although it will not be so explicit in operation, but will be more tactful. For example, according to Li Mingyang's analysis, major Japanese consortiums are likely to purchase weapons and equipment for the Japanese army through donations. However, no matter what method is used, the result will allow the Japanese authorities to gain the capital to expand their military preparations.

What can two trillion dollars do?

Even if only half of it is used in the navy, it will be enough to complete the infrastructure construction of four large aircraft carriers with wartime mechanisms within the next two years.

In fact, when Mu Haoyang found Li Mingyang, Mitsubishi Heavy Industry and Fuji Heavy Industry had already started the construction of the third batch of "Flying Dragon"-class aircraft carriers. As Mu Haoyang expected, four aircraft carriers started construction at the same time and were completely constructed in a modular manner.

"These photos were taken by our spy personnel, not very clear, but they can be seen as four aircraft carriers." Li Mingyang lit a cigarette and said with a smile, "Fortunately, Japan only has four platforms that can build large aircraft carriers, otherwise the situation will be worse."

“It’s bad enough.”

Li Mingyang smiled and continued to smoke.

"No matter what, it is impossible for us to start construction of the third batch of 'Kunlun Mountain' class immediately, and we cannot guarantee that it will be completed before 2035."

“The situation in Japan is similar.”

"What's the meaning?"

"According to the information we have, even if the third batch of 'Flying Dragon' class can complete the construction of the ship before 2035, it will not be possible to complete the installation by the end of 2035, and it will be put into service in 2036 as soon as possible. That is to say, if we can defeat Japan within one year, we don't have to consider these four aircraft carriers."

"I don't have enough confidence."

"At least, our advantage is still obvious enough in the early stages of the war, and these four aircraft carriers are likely to become the key factor in the outbreak of the war."

Mu Haoyang nodded to show that he understood what Li Mingyang meant.

"If you don't have a chance to come forward, I'll submit the report for you."

"There is no need for this for the time being." Mu Haoyang declined Li Mingyang's kindness and said, "In a few months, the construction work will not be carried out in the factory, and you will be able to obtain more conclusive information. At that time, it will be more convincing to report to the head of state and the prime minister."

"That's fine, anyway, this is a sure thing."

"What I can't understand is that the Japanese consortium is too generous, right?"

"Consortium?" Li Mingyang was stunned for a moment and said, "You mean that the Japanese consortium sponsors the government's arms race?"

Mu Haoyang nodded, indicating that this is what he meant.

"The current Japanese consortium is not the previous Japanese consortium." Li Mingyang paused for a while, lit a second cigarette, and said, "After World War II, under the leadership of the United States, the Japanese consortium under the leadership of the United States, otherwise Mitsubishi would not be able to surpass Mitsui and become Japan's largest consortium. For a long time, the Japanese consortium completely followed Western counterparts, controlled national policies through financial means, and made profits from it. Until the end of the East China Sea War, the Japanese consortium pursued this policy, that is, to make profits as its main purpose."

"Then what?"

"Facts have proved that Japan is difficult to be accepted by the Western world, and I am afraid it will never be able to leave Asia and join Europe."

"this……"

"In the long run, even if Japan is completely dependent on the United States, it will never be accepted by the Western world, and Japanese consortiums will not be able to achieve greater achievements. In the financial order dominated by Western consortiums, it will always be subordinate to gain more benefits. In the end, Japanese consortiums will inevitably become vassals of Western consortiums. In fact, this sign appeared as early as after the signing of the 'Platform Agreement'. Without the 'Platform Agreement', Japan would likely catch up with the United States at the end of the 20th century."

"In other words, the Japanese consortium has to find another way out."

"Before the East China Sea War, the Japanese consortium had no way out, or was unable to escape from the United States and gain real independence and autonomy. Since then, nationalism ignited by revenge has pointed out the direction for the Japanese consortium and made the Japanese consortium the main promoter of nationalism."

“This is really a good choice.”

"The risk is also very high. After being tied to nationalism, the Japanese consortium is no longer a private nature, but a state nature. To put it directly, the Japanese consortium has been tied to Japan's future, and honor and disgrace are on the same path, and naturally becomes part of the state machine." Li Mingyang smiled and said, "To put it directly, the Japanese consortium is not only the driving force behind the war, but also the direct interest in the war. If you win, Japan can become the most powerful country in the Western Pacific, thus completely getting rid of the United States. If you lose, Japan will become a second-rate or even a third-rate country, and I am afraid that there will never be a chance to make a comeback. For the final victory, it is nothing strange to bet on your old capital."

“What is the difference between this and militarism?”

"There is no difference, I just changed my coat." Li Mingyang lit the third cigarette. "In Japan, the national economy now relies heavily on military industry, or industries related to the military, and military expenditures and the government's fiscal stimulus policies are the main driving force of the economy. To put it simply, if Japan cuts military expenditures, at least one-quarter of Japanese workers will be unemployed. Economically speaking, Japan has no second way out and can only rely on military industry, which will inevitably move forward at full speed in the arms race."

Mu Haoyang sighed secretly. He had thought about these questions, but he had not raised them.

"No matter what, don't have any unrealistic fantasies." Li Mingyang glanced at Mu Haoyang and said, "This is definitely a total war of life and death. Although some people have not woken up and always believe that they can coexist with Japan through peaceful means, as soldiers, we must have a clear understanding. If Japan is a neighbor who is good at getting along with each other and willing to develop with us, it would not have come to this point."

"Old Li, you can see it thoroughly than me."

"Just, would you be so active if you can't see through it?"

Mu Haoyang smiled and said, "I still have to learn from you, like you said, put aside all fantasies and use iron and blood to solve the problems that must be solved."

"We just need to talk about these, there is no need to mention them to others."
Chapter completed!