Chapter two hundred and sixteen, the disintegration of the Russian-Austrian alliance
Diplomatic positions are sometimes very simple. Since the British decided to support Chile, Peru and Bolivia have had to seek support from Fa'ao.
International trade is just a small problem. These days, South American countries are very small in size. If it were not for the abundant resources and the need to promote monetary hegemony, the great powers would not pay attention to them at all.
Just look at the population of each country, Chile has about 2.2 million, Peru has about 2.75 million, and Bolivia has about 1.3 million.
With just a few people and agricultural countries, it is obviously impossible to count on how big the internal market there is.
Chile is relatively wealthy, mainly relying on saltpeter exports, and its military strength is the strongest among the Three Kingdoms.
There is silver in Peru, but unfortunately the price of silver has been falling year by year in recent years, and the Peruvian government's wallet is also drying out.
Bolivia can be said to be the worst. After finally discovering the saltpeter mine, the war broke out after only a few years of good life.
There is no doubt that the Three Kingdoms were unable to provide huge amounts of war funds at once, and loans were inevitable.
In the Vienna Palace, Franz was approving a special loan, and the debtor generously took out the Atacama Desert minerals as collateral.
"From the current situation, how likely is Peru and Bolivia to win a war?"
Chief of Staff Albrecht: "From the analysis of military strength on paper, the General Staff conducted a quantitative analysis based on the number of troops, weapons and equipment, training conditions, past military achievements, logistics support capabilities and other factors of the Three Kingdoms.
The military strength of the three countries is: Bolivia 1, Peru 1.8, and Chile 2.1.
In theory, Bolivia and Peru have an absolute advantage; however, on the battlefield, most of the time, Chilean troops are fighting against Peru and Bolivia.
Bolivia and Peru, which have the advantage of military strength, only joined forces in name only, with nominal cooperation on the battlefield and sometimes even pulled each other back.
If the cooperation problem between Peru and Bolivian troops is not solved, they will not have more than half of their chances of winning the war."
This is a common issue of all joint operations, and Bolivia, Peru and Chile all swore sovereignty over the Atacama Desert.
The unity of Bolivia and Peru does not mean that the territorial dispute between the two countries has disappeared. It is only because of its common enemy, Chile, is forced to unite.
In this context, it is normal to stab each other on the battlefield.
Franz: "Tell the Bolivians that we are not interested in saltpeter in the Atacama Desert and ask them to take out other collateral.
If there is no suitable collateral, we can mortgage domestic minerals to us, gold, silver, copper, iron, oil and natural gas.
Not optimistic about Bolivia winning the war will not prevent Austria from supporting Bolivia in this war. The linkage of "Boliviano" and ASUS is worthy of Austria's position behind them.
If it weren't for the minerals in the Atacama Desert, the Chileans had promised them to the British, and Austria could not compete with John Bull in South America, and Franz might have sent people to enclose land first.
Of course, the most important thing is that there is insufficient profit. Although the Atacama Desert is the world's largest saltpeter mine production, it does not mean that there are no saltpeter mines elsewhere, and there is also artificial nitrogen.
Originally, Franz was preparing to board the boat in Peru, but unfortunately he was taken first by the French. Austrian tentacles had been in deep into South America for too short, and his influence was still too weak.
If it weren't for Chile and Peru that they had embraced Britain and France first, Franz suspected that Bolivia might not have chosen Austria.
Minister of Finance Carl reminded: "Your Majesty, the precious metal mine in Bolivia has long been mortgaged to it.
Although many ordinary ore such as copper and iron have been discovered, they have no development value. Oil and natural gas are all new energy industries, and whether Bolivia has any unknown.
If you want to take these mortgages, the risk of the loan will increase greatly, and domestic banks may not accept it."
Franz woke up. Bolivia's industrial strength was limited, not to mention heavy industry, which was infinitely approaching zero.
It cannot be smelted on site, and the developed ore must be transported out for sale. With the transportation conditions of this era, these minerals naturally lose their economic value.
Needless to say, oil and natural gas have just begun to be used, and the importance has not been seen at all, so naturally no one spends a lot of money to explore.
After thinking about it, Franz found that these things were really not available in a short period of time. They may not even be able to use them within a hundred years, and it is completely nonsense to layout them in advance.
Austria has declared to remain neutral in the war. This time, loans are naturally carried out in the private commercial loan model. The government only collects a contract performance guarantee fee.
Judging from the current situation, the possibility of the Bolivian government winning the war is very small, and it will most likely follow the footsteps of time and space. If you lose the war, you will naturally have no money to pay off your debts.
If the collateral is worthless, private banks will not buy it. If the government negotiates the conditions and there is no bank willing to lend money in the end, wouldn’t it be embarrassing?
After awakening, Franz was not embarrassed at all and immediately changed his words: "Since the precious metal mine is gone, these things can only be considered as a source of money, and the Bolivian government will take out other things to mortgage them."
Without collateral? This is impossible. After all, it is a country, how can it not have any financial resources? If it really doesn't work, isn't there still land?
"By the debt", don't worry. It's still the 19th century, and armed debt collection has happened not only. Unless it is a giant like the Russians, the debt collection cost is too high, and everyone can only admit defeat.
...
Foreign Minister Wesenberg: "Your Majesty, our covenant with the Russians will expire in only three months. Negotiators sent by the Tsarist government have arrived in Vienna."
The Vienna government has different opinions on whether to have another Russian-Austrian alliance. Franz, including him, wavered his position several times in the middle.
It’s not that everyone is not determined, but ultimately it is the cause of interests. Whether it is continuing to form an alliance or giving up the alliance, there are a lot of interests in it.
After so many years, the economies of Russia and Austria have been essentially tied together. Austria imported industrial raw materials from Russia, processed them into products and then sold them back to the Russian Empire.
Since 1854, Russia and Austria have been each other's most important economic partners. At its peak, trade with Russia once accounted for two-thirds of Austria's total foreign trade.
With the rapid development of the Austrian economy, Austrian industrial and commercial products are constantly opening up new markets, and this number has begun to decline year by year.
Even now, trade with Russia is still the most important part of Austria's foreign trade, accounting for 29.7% of Austria's total import and export trade.
If the Russian economy had not kept up with the pace and the domestic market growth rate was too slow, this proportion would have been even greater.
There is no doubt that the Russian-Austrian alliance has made important contributions to the economic exchanges between the two countries and promoted trade exchanges between the two countries.
There are advantages and disadvantages. The Russian-Austrian alliance also restricted Austria's expansion. For example, during the Prussian-Russian War, the Vienna government lost the opportunity to take advantage of the Tsarist government.
Restricting further expansion can only be considered a small problem. The European continent is not big, and it cannot expand much, but it will cause a lot of trouble.
The main issue is the international image, and the Russians are so hated. The existence of the Russian-Austrian alliance has allowed Austria to share the pressure.
This left the Vienna government, which has always been good at flexible diplomacy, and often has no room for performance.
Economic gains are not for nothing, and Austria is still the biggest creditor of the Russians.
It would be fine if you borrow money, but the Tsarist government had a bad reputation. It often failed to fulfill its contracts normally and even lost a lot of Austrian debts.
Not paying back debts is definitely the most hatred. The Austrian financial community is full of staunch anti-Russian factions, and the people have bad impression of Russians.
In agriculture, the two countries are in a state of competition. Austrian farmers hate the Russians, a competitor who destroys market conditions.
Austrian peasants are not rural farmers who have no say, and there are also a large number of nobles. These people are victims of the interests of Alexander II's policy of reclaiming land, and they naturally hate the Tsarist government.
Franz asked expressionlessly: "Do you think we still need to renew our contract now?"
History seems to have happened again. The original German Empire of Time and Space had conflicts with the Russians due to agricultural frictions, and Austria is almost the same now.
Of course, there are also different things. In addition to the aristocrats and peasants in Austria, the financial industry also hated the Russians due to debt issues. Only the domestic business community supports the continued renewal of the contract.
In a similar position, Franz understood the foreign policy of William II alienating Russia from the original space-time.
In the face of interests, it cannot be compensated by personal power. The emperor must also consider the position of the people in the country and cannot oppose the majority of people.
Prime Minister Felix said incisively: "Continuing to renew the contract is economically effective and strategically worthless!"
Agriculture Secretary Halls: "The economic value is not great. Now it is the era of free trade, and the tariff advantages we originally had no longer exist.
Even without the Russian-Austrian alliance, at most, the procurement of some of the Tsarist governments will be reduced, with little impact.
After so many years of hard work, many aspects of Russian industry must rely on us. Even if the Tsarist government wants to kick us away, it depends on whether they can bear the loss."
This is the main reason why the Vienna government is fearless. Austrian industrial system adopts different standards from Britain and France, and is completely unworthy of the trap.
Russian industry has been deeply influenced by Austria from the beginning. Capitalists are greedy for cheapness and directly adopt Austrian standards.
Adopting Austrian standards is nothing. The key is that Russian industry has not formed a complete industrial system and machinery and equipment rely on imports from Austria.
To withdraw now, it means that most of the industrial equipment here will be scrapped, and this loss is simply not something that the Tsarist government can bear.
Chapter completed!