Chapter One Hundred and Thirty-Three, The British Calculations
On May 20, 1874, the Tsarist government declared war on Poland. In the afternoon of the same day, the Russian army crossed the border line and launched an attack on the Kingdom of Poland. The Russian-Polish war broke out again.
From the Russian-Polish conflict to the outbreak of the war, this efficiency refreshed Franz's perception of the Tsarist government.
The results of Alexander II's reform have been reflected in efficiency. According to the previous efficiency of the Tsarist government's work, it will be impossible to handle it in just a few months.
The sudden Russian-Polish war shocked many people. European governments had no time to react, and the war had already begun.
In London, Prime Minister Gerston felt exhausted. While busy with the domestic election, he also had to care about the changing situation in Europe, and even the Irish issue was postponed.
"The Near East War is still going on, and the Russians have provoked another war with the Poles. Did they forget the lessons of the last multi-line failure so quickly? Can anyone tell me what happened in the middle?"
With rich political experience, Prime Minister Gerston can be sure that the Russian-Polish war was definitely not caused by a conflict. Over the years, the conflicts between Russia and Poland have exceeded three digits, but this time the war broke out.
Looking at the Russians' rapid actions, it was clearly premeditated. The Near Eastern War distracted Britain from the attention of the United Kingdom, and the London government directly believed that the Russians were preparing for war against the Ottoman Empire.
For this reason, the British were still trying to find ways to preserve the Ottoman Empire. Now there is no need to worry. The Tsarist government provoked the Russian-Polish war and no longer had more energy to devote itself to the Near East war.
Foreign Minister McLean: "Prince, based on the intelligence we have collected, the Poles are in trouble this time.
The Berlin government was not active in sending troops to rescue the Polish Kingdom. It did not send troops after the war broke out, and even military mobilization was very slow.
The election for the Polish throne is imminent, and William I's approval rating is very high. Under normal circumstances, it is almost certain to be elected.
The biggest obstacle is the current Polish government, and there are certain signs that the Polish government is ready to use abnormal means to interfere in the election and kick William I out.
The Prussians were ambitious about Poland and used the means of killing people with a knife to oust the Polish government in advance.
Based on the current situation, Prussia and Russia should have reached a deal secretly. The Vienna government has not taken action yet. We cannot make an accurate judgment on what role they have played in it.
By the way, Prussian diplomats have been very active recently and have frequently met with high-level European countries. Just three days ago, the Prussian Minister to London and I also passed the Polish issue in depth.
In order to fight against the Russian threat, they wanted to form a Prussian-Polish Federation and seek support from us.
If nothing unexpected happens, the Prussians have had contact with France and the Austrians, but they just don’t know if they have reached a deal.”
Prime Minister Gerston nodded, and this explanation was right. The Russian-Polish war broke out suddenly. If the two countries of Polish and Polish did not notice it in advance, it would be completely unreasonable.
If Prussia and Russia secretly colluded, then everything would be clear. The Prussians took action to help the Tsarist government cover up and created conditions for the Russian army to attack Poland. It would not be surprising that the Polish government was kept in the dark.
Unlike other governments, the Polish government is a hodgepodge, and almost every powerful have laid nails in it.
The Kingdom of Prussia is the strongest in Poland, and many people have been bribed by the Dublin government. In addition, the Polish government itself is committed to death and the military is in a state of affairs, so it is too easy to intercept some of the intelligence.
Prime Minister Gerston frowned: "If the Austrians are involved, then it will be the fourth time that Prussian and Austrian divides Poland.
This is not a good phenomenon. If they continue, there will probably be no few countries left on the European continent in the end.
If Austria does not participate, then what are the benefits Pratt and Russia have taken to exchange for the Vienna government’s default?
Similarly, the Berlin government promised the French a lot of benefits in exchange for support from the Paris government, or the Prussians did not receive their support.
These issues must be clarified. I do not think that without obtaining the understanding between France and Austria, Prat and Russia can privately divide the Kingdom of Poland.
The benefits of being able to buy France and Austria are definitely not small. Both Prat and Russia are poor, with their industrial and economic strength very average. The promise should not be economic, so the answer is about to come out.
In any case, their deal cannot be reached, otherwise France and Austria will be completely bigger."
The British foreign policy has always followed interests, and when analyzing problems, they will also be mixed with a large number of interest factors.
Using this analysis method, many obscure questions have become clear, and you can know a lot by directly tracing the interests.
The strategy of a great power cannot be concealed at all, and countless pairs of eyes are staring at it? However, no country can only have one strategy. There is also a distinction between primary and secondary among many strategies, and this order still changes with the changes in the international situation.
Currently, European countries recognize that the most important strategy of the French is to digest the Italian region, followed by expansion into the Central European region and seize territory west of the Rhine.
Austria's most important strategy is to unify the German region, mainly to unify the German Federal Empire with high public support, and secondly to expand to the Ottoman Empire.
Due to the mutual restraint between European countries, the French's second strategy could not be implemented, and Austria's most important strategy on the surface could not continue.
But once France and Austria reach a compromise and Pradesh and Russia acquiesce their actions, the situation will be completely different, and the remaining countries cannot even oppose it.
Chancellor Laluk Royd: "The situation is not that bad. If it really comes to that point, France and Austria will have a fight.
Obviously, neither France nor Austria is ready for war now. At least I don't think they will break out in war before the clearance is completed.
Of course, in order to avoid this, I feel it is necessary to strengthen the strength of the German Federal Empire.
If the Prussians want to annex Poland, they will give up the Rhineland region. Anyway, it is an enclave for Prussia and is eyeed by the French.
Instead of leaving it to the French to enhance their strength, it is better to throw it to the German Federal Empire. At that time, France and Austria will have to restrain each other."
This is an open plot. The French Empire is at its peak now. As their neighbor, it is a tragedy and the national defense pressure has increased greatly.
The Rhineland region is just an enclave. When there is a great enemy of the Russian Empire in the east, once the French decide to take action, the Prussian Kingdom will be unable to resist.
Since it cannot be preserved, the Rhineland region's status in the heart of the Berlin government has greatly declined, and it is estimated that many people will agree to it in exchange for annexation of the Kingdom of Poland.
The British were also unhappy when they gave the Rhineland region to the German Federal Empire. Once the Rhineland region was incorporated into the German Federal Republic, France and Austria could only keep in check.
Even if the Vienna government wants to compromise and share the enlarged version of the German Federal Empire with the French, the German people will not agree!
Nationalism determines that once the French attack the Rhineland region, Austria must stand on the standpoint of the German Federation, and the Vienna government will not dare to make concessions at all.
On the contrary, if Austria wants to annex the German Federal Empire, the French cannot agree. How can France's strategic security be guaranteed if Austrian forces extend west of the Rhine?
Unless one side falls, the other side's purpose can be achieved. Under this background, the British can play a balance between France and Austria.
Whether France and Austria will have imbalance in strength is the future. The London government's foreign policy has always focused on the present rather than pursuing the illusory future.
No one can guarantee what will happen in decades or hundreds of years. Today is an ally, tomorrow may be the enemy, and the day after tomorrow may become an ally again. Diplomacy planning is simply a joke.
Prime Minister Gerston: "This question is not urgent. I will first reveal the news to the German Federation. If they want to obtain the Rhineland region, they must pay the price.
After obtaining the Rhineland region, the strength of the German Federation was greatly enhanced, and it was also a powerful country second only to Spain on the European continent.
We have to work hard to convince the Prussians for them and to settle the French. They can't just pay no cost!”
In a short time, Prime Minister Gerston made a judgment. The possibility of the Prussians giving up the Rhineland region was very high, which meant that they could get rid of the threat from the French.
As for the losses caused, it can be compensated by the German Federal Empire. The German Federal Empire is almost the richest region in Germany, and its finances are much stronger than the Berlin government. It is not a big problem to sell a good price.
With this money, many problems are solved. In the next Prussian War, the Prussian Kingdom will no longer have no chance of winning.
As a broker, Britain can also gain political benefits from it and expand its influence in the German Federation.
...
The outside world naturally knew nothing about what happened within the London government, and everyone was attracted by the war.
The Near East War and the Popular War broke out at the same time, and everyone was waiting for the reaction of Pu and Austria. Many people were speculating whether the European continent would trigger a full-scale war.
Prussia, Poland, and the Ottoman Empire can be regarded as allies, and they are just one treaty when it comes to fighting against the Russians.
Russia and Austria are also allies. Theoretically, the Tsarist government has the opportunity to pull Austria into the water. Once a full-scale war breaks out between the two sides, the Ottomans of Pubo will definitely not be able to defeat Russia and Austria, so they can only pull people into the water.
At this point, the fantasy should end. On May 23, 1874, the Austrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs made its position: the Vienna government was absolutely neutral in the PPO War.
Everyone can rest assured this time. The so-called total European war does not exist, and small countries don’t have to worry about taking sides.
Ankara and Vienna's decision disappointed Abdul Aziz I. He originally expected the outbreak of the Continental War to share their military pressure.
No need to consider now. European countries are not stupid. Who would like to fight without interests? It was not beyond everyone's expectations that the Vienna government remained neutral in the Russian-Polish war.
It is very difficult to expand territorially on the European continent, and the legal basis is the biggest problem. Austria does not have a legal basis for Poland, and its land occupation is simply illegal.
This is different from expanding in the Balkans. There is no need to worry about legal issues or public condemnation by snatching land from the Ottoman Empire. The Vienna government has the title of "liberator" rather than an invader.
It is different to steal Poland. Although the big bobo is not very popular, it is also a sovereign state recognized by everyone. If you steal the territory of the Polish Kingdom, you will invade it.
It was unable to seize territory, the Polish government was so poor that it could not even collect military expenses when launching a war. It was normal for Austria to have no interest in the Polish region.
Chapter completed!