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The first chapter zero three, the Tsar's choice

In St. Petersburg, after the agricultural crisis broke out, it became the center of the whirlpool of the storm.

European public opinion accused the Russians of deliberately creating agricultural crises, trying to take the opportunity to destroy the European agricultural production system and monopolize European food supply.

This statement is correct. The Tsarist government did have this plan, but before it could be implemented, the agricultural crisis broke out.

Agriculture is the most difficult industry to monopolize. There is almost no threshold and anyone can farm. These days, land is everywhere suitable for cultivation, and no colonial empire needs to be controlled by others.

The Tsarist government had the intention to monopolize the supply of food in Europe, but did not have the ability to implement it. Russia did not have the advantage in agricultural production costs, and it was almost impossible to win in the competition.

Faced with overwhelming public criticism, Alexander II decisively chose to ignore it. Anyway, the Tsarist government was being scolded all the time, and he was already used to it.

Public opinion can be ignored, but the reactions of European governments cannot be met with Alexander II's heart.

As of April 1873, several politicians had publicly stated that they would impose tariffs on imported agricultural products to protect their own agriculture.

All import tariffs on agricultural products are added together. Behind the seemingly fairness, there is actually a strong sense of malice.

Currently, among the four major agricultural product exporters in Europe, the Kingdom of Prussia has the smallest market share and has also suffered the least impact.

The Kingdom of Poland ranks second to the last and is now trapped in internal struggles. No matter how bad the situation worsens, it will not go a long way.

Although the Russian Empire ranks second in total export volume, they are still well-deserved bosses in this amount.

Austria has the largest export volume. In addition to local grain processing, it also imports Russian and Polish agricultural products for processing, most of which are supported by product added value.

After the agricultural crisis broke out, the Tsarist government also prepared to do it by itself, leaving no chance for Austrians to make a difference.

Unfortunately, the domestic industrial strength is too weak, resulting in high processing costs and losing competitiveness in the face of cruel market competition.

Affected by the agricultural crisis, Austrian agricultural product processing enterprises have cut production capacity, and the total amount of agricultural products exported to Austria has also decreased, but it still accounts for more than half of the total export of agricultural products to foreign countries.

From the perspective of interests, both sides can also be considered as losing and prospering. Alexander II just received a telegram from the Austrian Association of Agricultural Products Processing Enterprises, hoping that they would reduce the total grain exports.

A large amount of cheap raw grain was exported to the international market and flowed directly into European countries. This was also a life-and-death battle for Austrian agricultural product processing companies.

The more fierce the market competition becomes, these processing companies will definitely not sit still and wait for death. It is impossible to lose money and make a lot of money.

The capitalists are all very smart. The seemingly ordinary telegram is actually an ultimatum.

Capital is profit-seeking. If agricultural product processing has no profit, capitalists will not mind abandoning it immediately.

Since 1872, smart capitalists have been undergoing transformation. Now they are in the period of the Second Industrial Revolution, and there are still many projects that can be invested in, so there is no need to hang themselves on a tree.

If the Russians are willing to reduce the total grain exports, everyone's profits will be guaranteed and the business can continue.

Otherwise, things will be difficult to handle. Affected by the plummeting grain prices, almost every grain capitalist’s warehouse is full of food, waiting for the market to recover.

If you don’t see hope, everyone can only stand the pain. This is definitely not a good thing for the Russians, because of the Russian-Austrian alliance, Austrian processing companies have always given priority to purchasing Russian agricultural products.

The situation in Europe was completely different. Under the same conditions, almost no capitalist was willing to cooperate with the Russians.

This is a sequelae of losing credibility and cannot be compensated for in a short period of time. Now, Russian agricultural products exports rely on cheap prices.

The continuous decline in international food prices is actually being pulled down by Russian food exports. In order to sell the food, they had to lower prices.

As soon as the Russians lowered the price of grain exports, the market could only lower it. The current international food prices have been the lowest price in decades, and everyone's profits have been wiped out.

Alexander II knew the consequences of doing this, but seeing the piles of food, they could only sell them if they lost money.

Moreover, the definition of "loss money" cannot be generalized. The exported grain is exchanged for foreign exchange, while the domestic circulation is paper rubles.

The paper rubles carried out by the Tsarist government are not recognized by the outside world. In international trade, the most commonly used ones are currently gold, silver, pounds, ASCH, and francs.

The international reputation of the ruble is not as good as the Kroner of the Nordic Federation, nor the Dutch guild of the Netherlands. Even the Swiss francs and the Prussian marks are more popular than the ruble.

From the perspective of national exhibitions, even if they suffer losses, the Tsarist government must obtain foreign exchange as much as possible, otherwise the trade deficit will not be balanced and will lead to gold and silver outflows.

It is not a solution to keep losing money. In order to ease the losses, the Tsarist government has depreciated the ruble twice.

This is undoubtedly a heavy blow to the ruble, which has just undergone gold standard reforms, and has seriously hit market confidence.

The currency cannot continue to depreciate. Economists have warned Alexander II that if you continue to play like this, the market will be ruined. Let's continue to use gold and silver as currency!

After adjusting his emotions, Alexander II: "What do you think about the telegram from the Austrian Association of Agricultural Products Processing Enterprises?"

An industry association can directly threaten him by telegramming, which made Alexander II very atmosphere. If it weren't for no choice, he really wanted to cut off the transaction between the two parties.

Of course, no matter how much I think about it, I'd better forget it. Without this biggest buyer, their lives will be even more sad.

Secretary of Finance Christenval: "Your Majesty, unless all countries work together to reduce their food exports and raise their food prices, we must not cut their exports.

At present, there are still a large number of agricultural products in China that are unsold, especially in the newly opened Siberian region, where local food is simply ignored, and the government's taxes are all food.

The Ministry of Finance is organizing manpower transportation. If it cannot be sold out, these taxes will be completely over.

If there is no way to solve the problem of unsalable food, use this food to repay the foreign debt. Whether they accept it or not, we will only pay with food."

In Christaval's view, everyone can tolerate the debts before. Now the Tsarist government is willing to admit its previous debts, which is already very considerate. I still want to be picky?

Foreign Minister Chris Basham shook his head repeatedly: "No, we finally reached an agreement with other countries. If we do this, we will immediately fall into diplomatic difficulties.

According to the prior agreement, all countries have agreed that we use agricultural products to pay off debts in batches, so there is no need to do such extremes."

Grain debt repayment is the greatest political achievement of the Russian Foreign Ministry, and it will repay all debts in a total of 15 years. If all the debts are paid out with food at once, they will solve the agricultural crisis, but the creditors can't stand it!

Food that cannot be sold is worthless. Chris Basham does not want the achievements of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to be destroyed, and it will also be a disaster for the Russian Empire.

If we cut production capacity, everyone tacitly did not propose it. Austria's call for production cuts since last year has become a joke.

In addition to Austria's own reduction in grain planting area, Russia and Prabak all just shouted slogans and issued several laws.

When it was implemented in detail, it was not the case. The law cannot stipulate which piece of land to grow grain and which piece of land cannot grow grain.

Any law that is widely recognized by the society does not mean to be implemented. Even if it is the fallow law that is widely recognized by the society, when it is implemented, the officials below do not know which piece of land has fallow or which piece of land has not fallow.

If statistics are not conducted in advance, how can we talk about execution? In the face of reality, officials from all over the country have made tacit choices to start counting now.

If grain is planted this year, then this piece of land should be fallow next year. Everyone has clearly figured out that no one has anything to say.

As a result, the grain planting area in various countries has increased this year, and the government is also powerless. It may take several years to wait for regulation to play a role.

The role of market self-regulation may be more effective than government laws. After years of continuous losses, ordinary people may not reduce the area of ​​grain planting, but nobles will definitely reduce their output.

Agriculture Minister Manilov interrupted: "The two disputes are meaningless, unless the agricultural crisis is fundamentally resolved, the crisis will only be more serious.

Even if you forcibly throw food to your creditors, you can only treat the symptoms but not the root cause. The agricultural crisis cannot be escaped in one or two years.

According to data released by the Austrian Ministry of Agriculture, if no measures are taken and the market can adjust themselves, the agricultural winter may last for more than ten years.

Russia is a major agricultural country. If the agricultural crisis lasts for more than ten years, it is initially estimated that tens of millions of farmers in China will go bankrupt due to this, and it may even be 20 million or 30 million.

The industrialization process of the empire is very fast, but it is not possible to accommodate so many bankrupt people in a short time.

Our biggest problem now is not the unsalable domestic grain, but how to ensure that farmers do not go bankrupt on a large scale.

According to the current situation, domestic bankrupt farmers will be several times that of last year. About 50,000 to 80,000 families will go bankrupt. If the agricultural crisis continues, this number will grow geometrically every year."

It's almost said: I can't finish the food, so let's fight!

The agricultural crisis was not the same. If it had been a few years earlier, it would have happened to be in the Russian-Prussian War, and the outcome of the war might have been rewritten.

Gray animals are not worth much. As long as they have food in their hands, the Tsarist government can carry out the war. The Tsar, who can make soldiers eat a lot, is already a good Tsar, and other problems can be overcome.

Don’t look at the current Russian Empire, as if it were a little smaller, if a war broke out, the Russians’ war potential would definitely be a few years ago.

This is the benefit of too much grain. No matter how unsold the grain is, as long as farmers do not go bankrupt on a large scale, the problems are within the controllable range. To put it bluntly, if everyone is full, no one will rebel.

The agricultural crisis is so serious that Russian farmers did not accuse the Tsarist government. Alexander II's prestige was not damaged at all, but the benefits of eating a full meal were brought.

After pondering for a while, Alexander II decided to surrender to reality. "If you die, you will not die." It is better for others to be unlucky than yourself.

"The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Vienna government communicate in depth, and this time, they will be pulled into the water at all costs."

After experiencing a failure, Alexander II's arrogance has been reduced a lot and he has restrained his behavior a lot.

This is a crisis and also an opportunity. If the operation is done well, the Russian Empire can also use the power of Austria to kill an enemy.

...
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