Chapter fifty-one, two countries on the brink of bankruptcy
Vienna Palace
Foreign Minister Wesenberg said with a smile: "Your Majesty, in order to seek our support, both Pratt and Russia have offered almost the same conditions.
The Russians promised that as long as we support them, Silesia would be obtained after the war; Prussia promised that as long as we remain neutral, Silesia would be ceded after the war."
The Russians promised it was to be generous, and the Tsarist government would not mind buying Austria with Prussian interests.
The Berlin government's promise was forced to do nothing, and they were unwilling to give up Silesia. In order to win the war, they had to stabilize Austria.
After winning this war, their efforts could be doubled back; after losing the war, Galicia could not be saved at all.
Despite the years that have passed, the Austrians are still resentful of the Silesia region. Especially in recent years, with the increase in strength, the calls for the Vienna government to withdraw the Silesia region are getting higher and higher.
Once the Prussian Kingdom becomes weak, Austria will definitely take the blame. Now the Berlin government has to stabilize Austria first.
Looking at Felix who was reluctant to speak, Franz asked, "What do you think of the Prime Minister?"
Prime Minister Felix replied: "Your Majesty, neither of these two is the best choice. What we need is the loss of both PAS and Russia.
Now our alliance with the Russians is already very annoying, and European countries are working hard to split this alliance. If the Tsarist government continues to win, we will only encounter more trouble in the future.
For us, the Russian Empire is now strong enough. If the Tsarist government completes internal reforms, it will be hard to say whether the Russian-Austrian alliance is worth it.
Similarly, a stronger Prussian Kingdom is not in our interest. Europe is too small to accommodate so many powerful countries.”
Both Prussians and Russia were both defeated. This is the most ideal state. Not only can the Prussians interrupt the reform of Alexander II with the hands of the Prussians, but the reform of the Tsarist government is even more incomplete than in history. At the same time, the Prussians can also interrupt the ambitions of the Prussians. After this failure, they will never have the chance to rise again.
But it is very difficult to do this, at least Franz does not think Austria has the ability to play this balance.
The Prussian Kingdom will be done if it loses once. On the surface, the Russians can lose many times, but in fact, this is very false. There are too many internal problems within the Tsarist government, and Franz is not sure about their ability to bear the loss.
This is different from the Near East War. When the Russian army reached the doorstep of Constantinople, all classes in the country were supporting the war. No matter how much the Tsarist government suffered, it must persist.
Franz thought for a while and said, "You don't have this kind of idealistic plan, it's easy to collapse and end up not being pleased with both sides."
According to actual needs, we only need to do two things:
1. Use the Prussians to disrupt the reform of the Tsarist government. As long as the Russians cannot win in a short period of time, Alexander II will make concessions to the conservatives, and this reform will not be thorough;
2. The Kingdom of Prussia cannot be expanded. It is enough to have a strong country in the German region, and there is no need to add another competitor.
The things that strengthen Prussia's strength can be done by Britain and France. All we have to do is to give blood transfusions to the Tsarist government when necessary and strengthen their determination to continue."
Based on past experience, if the debt of the Tsarist government reaches a certain level, they will declare bankruptcy. Recently we have collected information that the Tsarist government has made a bankruptcy plan."
Franz had nothing to say. In fact, there were many things in the Middle Ages when the king declared bankruptcy and was dependent on his debts, and he would happen almost every few decades.
Many capitalists were cheated and cried, among which Jewish capitalists were cheated the most. This is because they are too rich. Most of the money is gathered in their hands. Who should they borrow money from them?
Of course, there are many kings who are cheated. Jewish capital attracts hatred because they often bury nails in loan contracts. Many kings who borrow money are deceived and have to pay a lot of extra interest.
Facts have proved that rule is not easy to mess with, especially in the monarchy era, when you dare to cheat them of money, you have to pay a price. This is how most of the anti-Semitism movement in the European continent came about.
In modern times, the power of capital has continued to grow, and governments in various countries have less and less committed debts through bankruptcy, especially international loans with backgrounds from great powers, and even more afraid to pay debts.
It's natural that it doesn't matter when everyone is lying on debt together. Anyway, the world is like a crow. But suddenly everyone starts to abide by the rules, and it's very prominent that you are the only one who is lying on debt.
As soon as the creditors promoted, the credibility of the Tsarist government was so ruined. Without credibility, many things were difficult to deal with, so the Russians were embarrassed to use gold and silver coins.
Franz thought for a while and said, "Then we will also tighten the money from the outside and remind the domestic financial community to be more vigilant.
Support to the Russians is mainly in kind. All large loans to Russia must have collateral."
This can be considered as a detriment. These restrictions undoubtedly increase the difficulty of the Tsarist government in financing the Austrian capital market. However, as long as the Tsarist government does not blame the debt, it would be fine even if it comes up with more collateral.
With collateral, even if the Russians declare bankruptcy, they cannot rely on these debts. After all, the value of collateral is usually greater than that of the loan.
Franz also had to do it. You should know that not long ago, the Tsarist government used Alaska to offset the debt of 2.57 million Syrians, and also owed a favor. If it weren't for the fact that it was really impossible to hold on, the Russians would never do this.
...
When Austria was worried about the bankruptcy of the Russians, the London government also faced the same problem. As the European continent is the most powerful country, the Kingdom of Prussia is not a rich master.
Now lending money to the Berlin government is no less risky than lending to the Russians. The war bonds issued by the Berlin government have been cold in the London financial market.
If the Kingdom of Prussia wins the bet, then it is possible that the money will be afforded; if the Kingdom of Prussia loses or both loses, these investments will be wasted.
There are not many people optimistic about Prussia, and everyone is unwilling to take risks. Even if the bond interest rate has increased to 15.8% annual interest rate, sales are still not optimistic.
As the funder of the Kingdom of Prussia, the London government naturally cannot watch this happen. Without enough money, what will the Kingdom of Prussia fight this war?
Minister of Finance Agarwal said: "We have issued war bonds to the Prussians, and so far, have sold £1.869 million, which is too far from the issuance of 15 million.
The people are not optimistic that they can win the war, and the bond cannot be sold unless someone can provide them with guarantees.
The Prussian Kingdom's finances were very bad. They have been in a deficit since 1848.
Many domestic financial institutions believe that the Prussian finance is on the verge of bankruptcy and refuse to provide them with loans."
It is not easy to be a financial backer, it is necessary to invest real money. The cost of the Plain-Russian War is destined to be a huge expense, and the possibility of losing all the money is very high.
Prime Minister John Russell rubbed his forehead and said, "So, we have promised aid to the Kingdom of Prussia. Hasn't one-fifth been raised in the past two months?"
According to the agreement, the British would provide the Kingdom of Prussia with a loan of 10 million pounds, plus the issuance of 15 million pounds of war bonds.
The reality is that except for the London government that prepaid 5 million pounds to the Prussian government, no one is interested in the capital market.
This is a sequelae of the Near Eastern War. Neither Britain nor France defeated the Russians, let alone the Prussian Kingdom?
Even the London government did not think that the Kingdom of Prussia could win this war. To support them was just to interrupt the reforms of the Russians, not to expect the Kingdom of Prussia to win.
"Yes, Prime Minister. Everyone has no confidence in Prussia, so they are more cautious when investing." Chancellor Agarwal replied
The British people support the Kingdom of Prussia to fight against the Russians, but it will be different if you pay.
Some newspapers in London are betting on when the Prussian Kingdom will fail.
The most optimistic estimate is that the Prussian Kingdom can support one year and then lose the war; the most pessimistic one believes that the Berlin government will surrender in less than a month.
Chapter completed!