Finally, Lin Shiping combined all the speculations and gave a relatively positive conclusion.

In the next three months to half a year, the probability of a large-scale war breaking out in the Southern Subcontinent is more than 80%, but the Republic of Newland will not directly send troops.

Simply put, the war will be carried out in the way that the Kingdom of Vanluo seeks to unify the entire southern subcontinent.

Through diplomatic efforts, we can gain some time, but as long as the Republic of Newland is willing to invest enough resources, it cannot prevent the outbreak of war.

The reason is also very simple. The Liangxia Empire would never allow the Fanluo Kingdom to dominate the southern subcontinent.

As for the direction of Austria, Lin Shi was not very worried about rehabilitation.

In his words, as long as the Liangxia Empire did not do the stupid thing to destroy the Great Wall by itself, and as long as the imperial navy was still strong enough, the Republic of Newland would not dare to attack Austria in the next three years. At most, it would be a little bit of a piece of it and then take the opportunity to seize the Hovay Islands.

Relatively speaking, the Hovay Islands are the key.

However, it also takes time to prepare and you have to wait for the right time.

The former has nothing to do with the Military Intelligence Bureau and cannot affect it. After all, the Newland Navy is not small in size, and it will definitely increase its combat readiness level after the war breaks out. If it is fast, maybe one month is enough. If it is slow, it will only take a few months, and the Newland Navy will definitely be able to complete the pre-war preparations.

The key is actually the latter.

This opportunity is determined by the war in the Southern Subcontinent.

Simply put, once the Imperial Navy centrally deploys its fleet on the Fanyan Ocean, the Newland Navy can launch a combat operation to recover the Hovayi Islands with local military strength.

After the war broke out in the Southern Subcontinent, how many troops would the Imperial Navy need to invest in that direction?

What to say is also the key to the empire's proposal and pursuit of the "two plus two strategy" in the past decade, after the Bo Yi War.

This "two plus two" refers to a total war in two main directions and a large-scale local war in two secondary directions.

According to the idea at that time, the two main directions refer to the continental battlefield and the eastern Ocean battlefield, and the two secondary directions refer to the southern subcontinent and the Crescent Region.

In the empire's strategic plan, the Southern Subcontinent is only a secondary direction.

But the problem is that in the "two plus two strategy", there was no idea that the Republic of Newland could provide substantial strategic assistance to the Varón.

This complete strategy is achieved in the context of the Third Global War.

The implication is that when the empire had to send troops to the Southern Subcontinent, it had already started war with the Tsuman Empire and the Republic of Newland, blocking the maritime route to the Southern Subcontinent.

Under this background, there is no question of how many fleets to be invested in Fanyan Ocean.

The reason is also very simple. The empire is on a strategic defensive in the direction of Fanyan Ocean. Its only aims to control the Posha Bay. It does not need to occupy the Southern Subcontinent. At most, it only prevents the enemy from using the Southern Subcontinent. Therefore, the strategy adopted is only a strategic blockade of the Southern Subcontinent.

According to this strategy, the Imperial Navy did not need to deploy heavy troops in Fanyan Ocean during the war.

Among the 15 standing aircraft carrier battle groups of the Imperial Navy, nine remained in the East Ocean, and the other six will be used on the Xi Luoyang.

From a military perspective, using submarines and shore-based air force to cut off the sea route to the southern subcontinent is enough to make the Kingdom of Vanluo submit.

That's why under this strategy, the troops invested in the Southern Subcontinent are very limited and are only a secondary direction.

The current situation is that the Republic of Newland will definitely not join the war immediately. Before the Northwest War Zone stabilizes, the Empire will not declare war on the Republic of Newland, so it is impossible to use strategic blockade to deal with the Vanluo State, and it may not necessarily make the Vanluo authorities understand the overall situation.

With the support of the Republic of Newland, the Vanro Kingdom is really possible to develop the Southern Subcontinent into the main battlefield.

In this way, you have to invest enough fleets in that direction.

To be honest, this is also the most critical issue.

According to the report submitted by the Navy, even if the war mobilization is completed within three months and all 15 aircraft carrier battle groups are put into deployment, then in half a year, there are only 10 aircraft carrier battle groups that can be truly deployed, because the five aircraft carriers that have completed the deployment must be returned to the shipyard for overhaul. Relying on only 10 aircraft carrier battle groups, it is impossible for the Imperial Navy to gain strategic advantages in three oceans at the same time.

What to say is impossible in two oceans.

What's more, the combat operations in Poshawan are not over yet!

According to this analysis, the Imperial Navy needs to maintain sufficient troops in three directions, Poshawan, Northern Fanyan Ocean and the East Ocean. Then, three months later, when the war broke out in the southern subcontinent, the Imperial Navy deployed only 4 aircraft carrier battle groups in its surrounding areas, and the two battle groups deployed on the Mua Sea must also undertake combat operations in the direction of Poshawan.

This little force is simply not enough to intimidate the Kingdom of Fanluo.

If the fight starts, at least three aircraft carrier battle groups are needed in the Bay of Bengal, and at least three aircraft carrier battle groups are needed in the Muahai to face the Vanluo Kingdom.

The problem is here.

At that time, no matter what, it is impossible to use 6 aircraft carrier battle groups to deal with the Vanluo Kingdom.

At this point, Qin Fenglie proposed a solution. In the name of war mobilization, he immediately activated the large aircraft carriers sealed after the Boeh-Iran War.

Obviously, this is indeed a solution.

It's just a rush.

Although after the end of the Boei War, the Imperial Navy tried every means to save more than 20 large aircraft carriers that had not yet reached their designed lifespan, even if these aircraft carriers in the sealed state did not consider their performance, it would take a lot of time to unseal them.

In theory, it will take at least half a year to get the sealed aircraft carrier back to service. The first three months mainly cleaned the inside and outside of the ship, and the next three months are to return to the shipyard for necessary modernization, and test the main equipment and systems during the transformation.

However, it will definitely take more time to actually execute it.

Not to mention anything else, the shipyard does not have that strong transformation strength, and there are not even enough dry docks to transform all sealed aircraft carriers at the same time.

Moreover, the shipyard will not delay the construction of other warships in order to unseal the old aircraft carrier.

After the outbreak of the war, the shipyard's primary task was to start construction of more super aircraft carriers immediately according to the plan formulated before the war.

In this regard, the Imperial Navy has a very complete and extremely detailed shipbuilding plan.

According to the data provided by Qin Fenglie, six sealed aircraft carriers in good condition can be put back into service within half a year as soon as possible.

However, even after serving, you may not be able to go out to sea to fight.

The reason is also very simple: the Navy needs to spend more time training reserve officers and soldiers to re-master relevant skills.

It’s not that the navy’s mobilization system is too poor, but that the sealed aircraft carrier is too old.

Almost all of these large aircraft carriers were built during the last war, and only the six ships in the best condition were built after the war ended.

Although these aircraft carriers built during the war were improved several times before they were retired and sealed, such as replacing the beveled deck that only appeared after the war, using better performance steam catapults, etc., the sealing for more than ten years was enough to be abandoned by rapidly developing technology.

The key is that most of the officers and soldiers who served on these aircraft carriers were over 50 years old!

Some core personnel, especially technical non-commissioned officers, are over 60 years old.

This means that many young officers and soldiers have never worked on these aircraft carriers at all, so it is impossible for them to directly drive aircraft carriers to participate in combat.

After unblocking, it will take at least several months to get adaptive training.

Even if it is ideal, it would be great that the first batch of six large aircraft carriers can form combat effectiveness within one year.

In the Navy's strategic plan, sealing the aircraft carrier is only the second-line troops.

Simply put, during the war, these aircraft carriers are left on the second-line troops and undertake anti-submarine escort tasks to reduce the pressure on the front-line troops. There is no need to spend resources to build special escort aircraft carriers after the war begins, thereby building more super aircraft carriers.

So, what about the new aircraft carrier?

Obviously, that is even more distant water cannot save the near fire.

Although within a few days, the two houses of discussion will approve new shipbuilding plans and relax restrictions on the navy, so that the navy can build warships including aircraft carriers as needed, even if the shipyard immediately enters the state of war, it will take at least 30 months to build a super aircraft carrier.

If the time for the shipyard to complete the mobilization is also included, it would be great that the first batch of super aircraft carriers can be put into service within three years.

To be said, because of one or another, the first batch of super aircraft carriers that started construction after the outbreak of the war will take at least three years to be built. For example, during the last war, the "provincial" level joined the battle sequence three years after the outbreak of the war.

Can you wait until three years later?

Although in theory, the Republic of Newland cannot obtain many aircraft carriers within three years, at least in terms of overall strength, the Newland Navy only needs to fight in one direction, that is, the Eastern Ocean, and there is no problem of fighting on two fronts.

Obviously, this is an advantage that the Imperial Navy does not have.

In this way, it is impossible to invest enough troops.

After a round, the problem revolves around again.

If you want to invest enough troops on the Southern Subcontinent, that is, you will gain enough strategic advantages, the only way is to end the combat operations in the Posarwan direction within three months and invest the troops originally used in that direction on the Southern Subcontinent battlefield.

Don’t forget that you have planned to invest 6 aircraft carrier battle groups in Posawan!

Even if two of them have to take into account the Southern Subcontinent, as long as the battle in this direction can be completed in time, four aircraft carrier battle groups can be sent.

There is no doubt that this has decisive significance.

To put it bluntly, if four aircraft carrier battle groups can be added, the Imperial Navy will be able to take the lead in the battlefield facing the southern subcontinent.

The key is that we can maintain sufficient strategic advantages in Dongguan Ocean.

In this way, it is expected that within a year, that is, to withstand the attack of the Western Land Group, regain the eastern bank of the Volga River through counterattacks, and even to capture and control Xiluosha, the Republic of Newland, which is still out of the matter, will accept the fait accompli.

This is also the most ideal result that can be achieved.

So, can the combat operations in Posa Bay be concluded within three months?

Zhou Yongtao threw this issue to Qin Fenglie, and Qin Fenglie put forward a request.

No longer limit consumption, no longer compulsory requirements for casualties.

If the cost is not taken, Kuwait may be liberated within three months.

Qin Fenglie's reason for making this request is also very sufficient.

The Iraqi army has made full preparations and will definitely be able to hold on for several months. Therefore, launching a ground attack in advance will inevitably lead to a decisive battle with the not-so-wealthy Iraqi Army. The equipment advantages of the Imperial Army and the Marine Corps cannot completely offset the military strength disadvantage.

The key is that the Air Force has to send the tactical aviation force to the northwest battlefield, and the Navy's carrier-based aviation force is the main force in the Posar Wan.

It’s not that Qin Fenglie looked down on the navy, but that the combat efficiency is still worse than the carrier-based aviation force.
To be continued...