Life’s “unintentional words” happened to be the key point.

For any country, the impact of the global Great Depression far exceeds that of war.

After the outbreak of the US-Iran War, countries around the world held high the banner of trade protectionism, erected trade barriers, made every effort to protect their own industries, and tried to block the storm from their home countries.

Trade protectionism eased the impact of the Great Depression to a certain extent.

The problem is that trade protectionism cannot fundamentally resolve the Great Depression.

This global economic depression has many similarities with the Great Depression in the late 1920s. First, the financial crisis triggered global financial turmoil, resulting in a large number of financial enterprises going bankrupt, and the investment market shrank sharply, which had a serious impact on the real economy, forming a vicious cycle of "business collapse - workers unemployment - consumption shrinking - product unsalable - more enterprises going bankrupt", which ultimately dragged down the real economy.

The fundamental reason for the Great Depression was not the financial crisis, but the uneven distribution of wealth.

Faced with the problem of "wealth distribution", no country has a magic bullet.

Trade protectionism simply transfers the issue of wealth distribution in one's own country to other countries by cracking down on goods from other countries and dumping goods from other countries.

When all countries implement trade protectionism, the channels for passing on the crisis are completely blocked.

After the Central and Southern Earth storm in 20199, trade protectionism played a role in promoting the economy gradually weakened.

Governments of various countries have successively introduced various policies and measures to solve the distribution problem. For example, Japan has nationalized bankrupt enterprises, restricted the income of private enterprises' executives, and imposed huge taxes on private enterprises. It transfers social wealth to ordinary people through secondary distribution. However, Japan is an extreme case. Not all governments can use the military to force consortiums to surrender to the government like the Japanese military government.

The Republic cannot do it, nor the United States can do it.

The Republic faces the same problem as the United States: a large amount of surplus materials have nowhere to be sold.

Relatively speaking, life in the Republic is a little better. The infrastructure in the Republic is still not perfect enough. Infrastructure can consume a large amount of surplus materials; industrial structure adjustments have greatly reduced the excess production capacity of some low-end industries; the power technology revolution has enhanced the competitiveness of high-end products in the international market; the social welfare security system has gradually been improved, providing basic living guarantees for ordinary citizens.

The problem of the United States is very serious. Although it has achieved breakthroughs through power technology, the American automobile industry has come back to life and death. However, other American industries are facing the test of survival. Take the American aviation manufacturing industry as an example. With the establishment of many aircraft manufacturing companies such as Shangfei, Chengfei, Xifei, Shenfei and other aircraft manufacturing companies, the "China Commercial Aviation Manufacturing Company" was announced. It will promote the 150-level fully electric regional passenger aircraft worldwide. Boeing's sales in 2019 dropped by 30%. In 2020, it has to issue a number of laws and regulations to restrict the entry of all-electric regional passenger aircraft into the United States.

The aviation market provides huge financial subsidies to Boeing and airlines. As large fully electric civil aviation passenger aircraft equipped with 6-level composite battery land is put on the market in 2022, Boeing will become even more dismal in the future. In order to allow Boeing to survive, the United States signed a land contract with Boeing in 20211 in the name of arms procurement, military development, etc., and even allocated 25 yuan to allow Boeing to develop a low-end light fighter specifically for sale to the outside world based on the f-32 (the JSF plan lost to the f-35 land light fighter jet in the JSF plan).

Aviation manufacturing is just a microcosm of the U.S. economy.

In order to avoid the collapse of pillar industries and large companies in the Great Depression and weaken their national strength, the United States had to "transfusion" for tens of thousands of companies in hundreds of industries through fiscal subsidies. When financial subsidies were released, the U.S. Congress issued relevant laws stipulating the amount of layoffs in companies receiving fiscal subsidies. The U.S. federal government also signed agreements with hundreds of large companies, requiring major companies not to lay off employees. Whether it is the U.S. Congress or the U.S. federal government wants to achieve the purpose of saving companies and reducing unemployment through fiscal subsidies.

After receiving financial subsidies, American companies cannot lay off employees or stop production, and can only continue to produce.

The question is, how to deal with the products produced? Keeping large enterprises does not mean keeping the jobs of all Americans. Trade protectionism has caused American consumers to lose the opportunity to obtain foreign goods at a low price. Lack of advanced technology and extremely high-priced American products have no competitiveness in the international market. The combination of many factors has made the US consumer market bleak and restricted US product exports.

Over time, the surplus supplies in the United States are increasing.

Financial subsidies cannot last forever. To restore the US economy, we must not only consume the remaining materials as soon as possible, but also make other countries pay.

It is not difficult to understand why the United States sold arms to Japan, which was embarking on the road of militarism.

Selling arms cannot completely solve the problem. After all, arms trading only accounts for a small proportion of trade.

The most direct and simplest way is to fight a large-scale war without the participation of the United States. One party involved in the war needs to purchase a large amount of material land, including arms, from the United States! This is exactly why many people believe that the keynesianism that saved the United States during the Great Depression in the 20th century was not Keynesianism, but the fundamental reason for the Second World War. Only war

Consume the surplus materials of the United States in a short period of time and bring the US economy

Pan Yunsheng's words are exactly the issue.

As the global Great Depression develops to the present, countries around the world are looking for a way out.

It is not only the United States, the Republic, the European Union, Russia, Japan and other traditional forces that need to solve the problem of "oversupply of materials".

Although economists around the world are calling on countries to abandon trade protectionism, it is too late.

Even if the interests of each country are not taken into account, all countries in the world will immediately abolish trade barriers, and the world economy will not improve immediately, and the world pattern will also undergo a major reshuffle. Countries with mastered advanced technology and strong product competitiveness will become the final winners, while countries with failed to master advanced technology and lack competitiveness will become the final losers. Even if the United States masters the production technology of composite batteries and has the foundation for competing with the Republic, it will not easily open up the domestic market, because the Republic can defeat its competitors with higher-level composite batteries at any time, and domestic interest groups, voters, and allies with interest will all become victims.

Other solutions proposed by economists are also to see flowers in the fog and the moon in the water.

To this point, there are few other viable solutions besides war.

As the leader of the Republic, Zhao Rundong could not see this. To be precise, two years ago, Zhao Rundong realized that a large-scale war would be inevitable, otherwise he would not adjust his strategy and actively deal with international disputes.

Zhao Rundong did not take the initiative to propose it, mainly because he could not determine the nature of the "large-scale war".

Is it a large-scale local war or a world-class war?

Although the latter is slim, no country or nation can become the winner of the world war when nuclear weapons are enough to destroy the only homeland of mankind, but it is not impossible.

As long as the war breaks out, under the driving force of the national and national interests, the leader's ability to control the country will be greatly reduced. National sentiments that lose control and national interests that lose control will become the culprit of the destruction of mankind.

Large-scale local wars are also very "special".

If the rules are not large enough, the purpose of consuming surplus materials cannot be achieved; if the scale is too large, it will easily turn into a world-class war.

If the United States is planning or promoting a large-scale local war, three conditions must be met. First, one of the parties involved in the war is an ally of the United States, and can only purchase or obtain materials from the United States during the war; second, major countries such as the Republic, Russia, Japan, Britain, France, Germany and Italy must be involved in the war, consume the remaining materials of these countries, and avoid these countries from dumping materials after the war; third, the scope of the war is limited and the scale can be controlled, and at least when major powers are determined to end the war, they can achieve their goals, so as not to evolve into world-class wars.

Looking around the world, there is only one place that can meet these three conditions: the Korean Peninsula.

Although EU countries have little "connection" with the Korean Peninsula, they can be used as allies of the United States to export materials to South Korea. The Korean Peninsula is close to the Republic, Russia and Japan. As long as the three countries are unwilling to expand their scale, they will not evolve into a world-class war.

After pondering for a while, Zhao Rundong breathed a sigh of relief.

Pan Yunsheng and Peng Maobang looked at each other and looked at Zhao Rundong.

"Xiao Pan is right. We underestimate the United States too much." Zhao Rundong smiled bitterly and said, "The United States condoned and supported Japan in order to trigger a war on a large scale without paying for it. It's just that the actions taken by the United States are very cautious, indicating that the United States is worried about being involved in the war."

"If you really fight, the United States will be the decision."

Looking at Peng Maobang, Zhao Rundong said: "The key is that we don't want to be involved in the war."

"The United States wants to kill someone with a knife!" Pan Yunsheng suddenly realized.

Zhao Rundong nodded and said, "It's very simple, but very effective. Japan and South Korea have a bad relationship. No matter what the US policy is, as long as it does not send troops to help South Korea as an allies, South Korea will strive to expand its arms after the war. Not to mention how much benefits the United States can get from it, and South Korea will definitely be restless when it expands its arms and prepares for war. As long as North Korea and South Korea are at a strife, the United States and Japan can make peace. At that time, no one can stop the Peninsula War."

"It's really cruel, but in this way, it takes at least two to three years of preliminary preparations."

"It will definitely not last more than four years." Zhao Rundong rubbed his forehead. "Frederick finally won re-election. As long as the Peninsula War broke out, the possibility of the Republican Party continuing to rule increased greatly. The global Great Depression will not end so soon, and interest groups in the United States will fully support the Republican Party. Frederick will not leave the reputation of creating war to the next president, but will only leave the reputation of ending the war to the next president to ensure that the Republican Party is in power continuously. Within four years, there will be a war on the Korean Peninsula, and the scale will be very amazing."

Pan Yunsheng and Peng Maobang did not object to Zhao Rundong's view because they also held the same view!

damn it**

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