Because Gu Wei and the people were still willing to give Pei Chengyi a deep heart and thrust the heat... all said it.

The Kurdish issue has a long history. No major power has been rushing to make the survival of tens of millions of Kurds, and freedom and rights: First, the Kurdish issue involves too many countries and stakeholders, resulting in the complexity of the situation. No major power is willing to drift through this muddy water; second, the Kurdish issue is difficult to bring substantial benefits to major powers, that is, it is not beneficial to any major power to help the Kurds establish an independent country. Among these two factors, the latter has a more prominent role and is the key reason why the Kurdish issue has been delayed for a long time.

In fact, until now, these two problems are still prominent.

In Pei Chengyi's words: the situation in the Middle East is already complicated enough, and there is no need to add a Kurdish country. The United States cannot help the Kurds establish a country, and the Republic should not help the Kurds establish a country. The reason is very simple. The Kurdish issue involves Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Armenia. Whether it is the United States or the Republic, as long as the Kurds establish a country, even if they can obtain a new allied, it will not be able to compensate for the losses caused by losing their original allies and even offending Russia.

The problem is that in the zero-combination game, sometimes you have to focus on your opponent's losses.

There is no doubt that the US authorities are focusing on the Republic's losses.

Among the countries related to the Kurdish issue, three are allies of the republic and quasi-ally allies Iraq has not formed an alliance with the republic, and can only be considered quasi-ally allies. Among the three most closely related countries, two are allies of the republic and quasi-ally allies. In other words, as long as the United States sacrifices Turkey, it can kill the three allies of the republic. If we consider the effect of putting it to death and living, the United States even has reason to believe that Turkey will not turn against its old boss because of the Kurdish issue. Including the situation in the Middle East that is increasingly unfavorable to the United States, the US authorities must make full use of the Kurdish issue before the Republic takes the lead and smashes it to Israel.

In order to explain it more thoroughly, Pei Chengyi made a detailed analysis.

The first is the parties involved in the Kurdish issue.

Although more than half of the Kurds are distributed in Turkey, and are distributed in a vast area from Atalia Gulf to Lake Van, accounting for about one-quarter of Turkey's land area, nearly half of the Kurds are still distributed in Iran, Iraq, Syria and Armenia. Influenced by the ethnic policies of the former Soviet Union, there were not many Kurds in Armenia and did not form settlement areas, so the relationship between Armenia and the Kurds is not very large. The key is Iran, Iraq and Syria, especially the "Iranian and Iranian".

The Kurds in Iraq are mainly concentrated in Mosul, the northern region centered on Kirkuk and Erbil, accounting for about one-fifth of the Iranian land area. The Socrates Valley is also a rare agricultural area in Iraq. The Kurds in Iran are mainly distributed in Iram Province, Lorestan Province, Kermansha Province, Hamadan Province, Kurdistan Province, West Azerbaijan Province and East Azerbaijan Province. Although the Iranian authorities have adopted the so-called "gathering and dispersal policy" in response to the Kurdish issue, that is, except for Kurdistan Province, there are no Kurdish settlement areas in other provinces, and they try every means to disperse the Kurds all over the place, but just one Kurdistan Province is enough for Iran to bear, because the province not only has rich resources, 2 of the three rare metal deposits in Iran are in the province, close to Iraq, and not far to the east is Tehran

.

The Kurdish people in Syria are less than 00,000, and the Kurdish problem is not serious. The problem is that the Aleppo province where the Kurds live in Syria is a military important military location for Turkey, and the population of the province is only more than 40,000. The Kurds occupy Xu. In other words, if the Kurdish problem breaks out, Syria will not be able to live a life. It can be seen that although the Kurdish issue will bring disaster to Turkey, it can also bring disaster to Iran, Iraq and Syria. If the Kurdish issue breaks out, it will definitely affect the Republic's power in the Middle East.

The second is the relationship between the United States and Türkiye.

During the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, due to the strategic needs of encirclement and suppression of the Soviet Union and the Islamic Revolution in Iran, Turkey has a very important place in the NATO group led by the United States. It was once called "NATO's southern gate" and it can even be said that the United States can dominate the Middle East, which has a lot to dominate Turkey's pace of blocking the former Soviet Union's move south.

Without Türkiye's barrier function, the United States would not be able to dominate Middle East affairs as much as possible. Tears and books are thrown into the factory and report less, and there are more bad jobs.

That's why Turkey's position in the American alliance system was greatly affected by the collapse of the Soviet Union. After the end of the Cold War of the United States and the Soviet Union, to be precise, after the Gulf War, because the United States repeatedly used the Kurdish issue to deal with the Saddam regime and overthrew the Saddam regime, the United States supported a Kurdish president in Iraq, so US-Turkey relations were greatly affected. For example, during the Iraq War, Turkey did not open military bases to the United States. Until the Iran war, it was because of concern that the United States would do it again on the Kurdish issue.

Article, so Turkey has not provided active cooperation. In fact, the United States did have the idea of ​​using the Kurds to deal with the Iranian authorities at that time. According to relevant information released after the war, after the US military occupied the Khuzestan province in southern Iran, it was difficult to penetrate deep into the heart of Iran because it was blocked by the Zagros Mountains to go north. Therefore, the US military once wanted to use Turkey's military base to open a second battlefield in western Iran, and the armed forces gathered in western Iran. A strategy to deal with Iran with the "Begging for the Bayerns and Kurds," using Iran to control Iran.

It can be said that for a considerable period of time, Türkiye has been in an optional situation in the US global strategy.

In a sense, when Turkey repeatedly refused to fulfill its allied obligations, the United States still did not turn against this country established by the descendants of Turks, which was largely considering Israel, because Turkey is the only Islamic country that maintains close ties with Israel, and it is also a strong enemy of all Middle Eastern countries. The so-called enemy of the enemy is a friend, and Turkey's existence greatly relieves Israel's pressure. Not to mention, Syria has to place a third of its troops in the northern border area, and Iran has to place nearly 30% of its troops in the western border area. Even Iraq, which has only recently begun to expand its military strength, has to focus on the north. It is no exaggeration to say that without Turkey, or Turkey is not an ally of the United States, Israel will have a much harder life.

The key is that the number one ally of the United States in the Middle East will always be Israel.

To put it bluntly, when Israel's survival is threatened, the United States will definitely use Türkiye as a shield.

This is exactly the case with the current woman, and Israel's survival is seriously threatened.

Although Israel taught the most disobedient neighbors in the Syrian-Israeli war for eight years, and once again wrote about King David's Jewish and Israel's king. The spades in playing cards were his legend. However, this victory did not make the Jews safer. Instead, Syria learned from the pain after the war and worked hard to govern, which seriously threatened Israel's survival. According to the general understanding of the international community, the Syrian-Israeli war is just a "war that creates war." Without efforts, Israel will face challenges from the Arab world and even the entire Islamic world, and the survival of Jews will suffer the most severe test after World War II. Although this comment is mostly suspected of Western news media deliberately creating momentum, it is very appropriate to reflect Israel's situation, that is, it has awakened and the rising Arab countries will not let the Jews dominate the Middle East.

In this way, the United States has no choice but to sacrifice Türkiye to create a frontline for Israel.

machine.

Finally, will Türkiye rebel against the United States?

The United States has repeatedly "joking" about Turkey's national interests, but little Turkey has not turned against the United States. At most, when the United States needs it, it has to have a child's temper, which is very funny with Turkey's situation.

In history, Turkey was once a very powerful country. As the terminator of the Roman Empire, the Ottoman Turkish Empire in history spanned three continents, Asia, Africa and Europe, with an area of ​​nearly 20 million square kilometers and a territory of tens of thousands of miles. It was one of the largest empires in the world at that time. Even in modern times, Turkey was still a very powerful country. During World War I, Turkey was a member of the Axis powers. Corresponding to its glorious history was a bleak reality. After World War I, Turkey declined rapidly, not only was it dismembered by Western powers led by Britain and France, but also eroded by Russia. By the time the bourgeois national revolution led by Kemal broke out, Turkey had become a small country entrenched in Asia Minor, and had nothing to do with its former glory.

Relatively speaking, the impact of setting the needle on the sharp ear is greater.

After World War II, Turkey quickly defected to the United States and joined the NATO group, becoming the only country with an oriental nature in the group. It can be said that Turkey has no other choice. When it joined the NATO group, except for the Arab countries that were still colonized by British and French colonization in the south, it was surrounded by the Soviet Union in several directions. If it did not find a backer that could compete with the Soviet Union quickly, Turkey would also become a red country. With the historical relationship between the two countries, even if the influence of ideology is not considered, Turkey would not turn to the Soviet Union. The subsequent wave of independence in the Third World made Turkey's situation even more difficult. After the Islamic Revolution broke out in the Islamic Revolution, there was no "friendly country" in the surrounding areas of Turkey except Greece in the southwest. In fact, Greece was not a friendly country, because the two countries had always had territorial waters disputes, and the conflicts on the Cyprus issue were very serious. The tears book bar shoveling the cafe factory was too small, and more

In short, Türkiye has no choice but to defect to the United States.

Even in the 1990s, when the Republic moved towards the Middle East with firm steps, Turkey had no choice. In a sense, all the achievements of Ottoman Turkey were given by the Tang Empire in the East, because this great empire that once defeated European countries was established by the Turkic people who were beaten to abandon their armor and fled to Asia Minor. In Turkic words, Turkey means the Turkic country. Even if historical issues and national feelings are not considered, the Turkish authorities must consider the actual problem, that is, after the Republic enters the Middle East, will it use Turkey as a springboard and extend its tentacles into the European continent 7. If the answer is yes, then Turkey must be prepared and build a fire-proof wall before the fire hits its home yard. That is to say, Turkey must try its best to prevent the Republic from entering the Middle East.

Obviously, this is why Türkiye and the United States share the same interests.

The problem is that even if the United States abandons Türkiye, Türkiye has no other choice.

Imagine that if the United States abandons Turkey, it means that the United States is no longer able to stop the Republic's expansion in the Middle East. That is, most countries in the south and east of Turkey have been embraced by the Republic and face the threat of being surrounded by the Republic. In this case, Turkey's most important family members will be able to wash the storm and shake the Concave. "After a certain rod is lying, he will only follow the United States and do his best to help the United States. That is, help the United States." For the ten-Erch authorities, as long as Israel is still there, the Republic must focus on the narrow land on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean with an area of ​​less than 30,000 square kilometers. It will not go north for the time being, and it will not pose a serious threat to Turkey's national interests.

If the Turkish authorities can figure this problem out, the US authorities will naturally not be confused.

In Pei Chengyi's words, this is the most critical point.

As long as the US authorities believe that no matter what they do, as long as the United States protects Israel to the death, Türkiye will follow, and will ensure Israel's safety by sacrificing Turkey's interests when necessary.

More importantly, the United States is likely to adopt a proactive strategy based on this.

In other words, the United States will take the initiative to trigger the Kurdish issue.

Although doing so will cause a lot of trouble to the US authorities and even affect its foreign policy, it can bring an advantage that no American politician can refuse, that is, disrupt the Republic's Middle East strategy without a stable foothold and preparation.

As long as you take the lead, the United States will have more than 80% chance of winning in the Middle East.

You should know that in a strategic game, 80% of the confidence means that you can win by almost 10, or even ten or ten.

Considering the political situation in the United States, Republican President Landers, who had just moved into the White House, would definitely be tempted. You should know that the president, who shouted the slogan "revitalizing American international prestige", lived under the shadow of his former, Democratic President Brancono. In the words of current affairs commentators, when Brancono has laid a good domestic economic foundation, Landers wanted to change the dismal appearance of the Republican Party in recent years, he was shocked to do several grand events during his tenure in the First World.

Don't forget that the Republican president is best at launching wars.

After World War II, except for the Korean War and Vietnam War that were the masterpieces of the Democratic president, almost all foreign wars experienced by the United States since then, from military assaults such as overthrow the Haitian president, to small-scale local conflicts such as the capture of Panama, to large-scale regional wars such as the Gulf War, to large-scale local wars such as the Iran war, were all masterpieces of the Republican president. In the words of the Americans, the greatest ability of the Democratic president is to help the United States make money. The greatest ability of the Republican president is to help the United States spend money. Of course, war is the most expensive method.

In Pei Chengyi's words, if Landers' personal wishes are taken into account, the possibility of a war breaking out is close to 100%.

Of course, Gu Weimin did not deny Pei Chengyi's judgment.

The key is, how should the Republic respond?

When Gu Weimin raised this question bluntly, Pei Chengyi knew that he not only had to report the situation to the head of state, but also made suggestions.

After pondering for a while, Pei Chengyi said: "This is indeed a crisis. Since it is a crisis, it means that danger and opportunity coexist. For us, the most dangerous thing is that the oil-Kurdish issue leads to political turmoil between Iran and Syria and eventually leads to the change of hands of the regime. Opportunities are also here. If it is not Iran and Syria that are turbulent, but Turkey, it is not us who should be troubled, but the United States."

“Since the United States takes the initiative, the possibility of this situation will not be much greater

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Pei Chengyi nodded and said, "So I think that before we find the most ideal counterattack point, we should focus on strategic defense. The specific methods should be divided into two aspects: one is to target the political situation between Iran and Syria, and the other is to directly target the Kurdish issue. The former has only one small point, that is, to maintain stability at all costs and must not cause social unrest. The key to the latter lies in the measures we take, that is, whether the Kurdish issue is internal or international. If it is an international issue, then we have to propose an effective solution that the United States cannot propose. In order to respond to the strategic offensive of the United States with proactive defensive measures."

"Then do you think there is a better solution?"

"This" Pei Chengyi smiled bitterly and said, "After all, the Kurdish issue is a problem of a nation pursuing basic rights. To realize basic national rights does not necessarily have to establish an independent country. Giving appropriate autonomy can achieve the same goal. So I think the most ideal solution is to establish a "Kurdian Autonomous Region" in the Silde settlement area, which crosses national borders and consists of several parts, all have corresponding sovereignty, but they cannot interfere with Kurdish autonomy, thereby ensuring the interests of all parties."

Gu Weimin was stunned for a moment, then smiled and said, "This is a whimsical way."

"It's better to have it than not, and the United States cannot propose such a solution

"It's true. As long as Landers doesn't have a high fever and burn his head, he won't do that."

"More importantly, Turkey has the largest number of Kurds and the widest distribution range. As long as you can grasp the problems of the autonomous region, you can put pressure on Türkiye."

"What's the result?"

"result?"

"After doing this, what can we achieve, or whether we can achieve our goals

?”
Chapter completed!