Chapter 3 Stupid or Stupid
"Pah, pah, pah -"
Manhattan, Wall Street.
At three o'clock in the morning Eastern Time, the sound of leather shoes colliding with the marble floor rang out in the corridor on the top floor of the Morgan Building.
In the dead of night, the sound was very loud in the empty corridor. The sound was very rapid and the frequency was very uneven, which showed that the owner of the leather shoes was very unstable and excited. It was rest time at night, but the owner of the leather shoes was walking in a hurry, which meant that he must be in
He waited until he received news that made his emotions fluctuate, and this news could only come from the other side of the ocean.
This is indeed the case. Anthony Garder and many colleagues have been waiting for four years for this news from Neon.
In November 1988, the neon stock market had tripled in five years. According to PE calculations, Anthony Garder, head of the investment department of Morgan Stanley, believed that the neon stock market had still peaked.
Anthony Garder has a good reason.
A very important part of the logic behind the rise of the neon stock market is based on the global invasion of neon products. With low prices, neon cars, refrigerators, air conditioners and even daily necessities can be found in every corner of the world.
Exaggerated words can explain everything. Wherever there are people, there are neon products.
Because of the abnormal proliferation of Japanese yen, the value of the Japanese yen has always maintained an extremely low exchange rate. Therefore, the neon stock market has been advancing rapidly.
But all this came to an end in 1985.
In 1985, the European and American economies were once dragged into the abyss due to the impact of the Cold War. Coupled with the impact of cheap neon goods, the economies of various countries were even worse. In order to curb the crazy invasion of neon, under continuous pressure from the four countries, the neon cabinet and the four countries met in the square.
The hotel signed an agreement to devalue the dollar.
In two years, under the leadership of various countries, the US dollar began a depreciation journey, and the Japanese yen appreciated rapidly.
In 1987, as the rapid depreciation of the U.S. dollar caused instability in the global exchange rate, the finance ministers and central bank governors of the seven countries reached an agreement at the Louvre in Paris to take joint measures to prevent the decline in the value of the U.S. dollar at that time and maintain the basic stability of the U.S. dollar exchange rate.
The result is that the Japanese yen has appreciated rapidly again, from 420 to 210, and the cumulative appreciation has doubled. This means that the price of neon products settled in global US dollars has doubled. As the price increases, sales will inevitably decline, but for neon products
As far as Neon's local manufacturing industry is concerned, profits have not increased as a result. Judging from the data at that time, in the past few years, Neon's trade surplus has reversed, and the stock market has also increased by thousands of times.
Anthony Guardian believes that Neon stock price has still reached its peak.
His judgment and reasoning were supported and recognized by most of his peers. After many investigations and discussions, he formulated a complete short-selling plan, stock index put options.
The so-called stock index options are derivative financial products based on stock index standardized contracts.
The option buyer pays the option seller an option premium to obtain the option to buy or sell a certain stock index contract at a certain price level, that is, the stock index level, at a certain time in the future or before that time.
Theoretically speaking, the profit of the buyer is unlimited. When the market moves in the direction of the buyer's subscription, unlimited profits can be obtained, while the seller's income is limited. The maximum profit is the premium paid when the buyer's subscription direction is wrong.
Yes, it looks like a stupid investment.
Assuming that the premium for a call option is one dollar, the theoretical maximum profit for the seller is one dollar, while the maximum profit for the buyer is theoretically unlimited.
Isn't it stupid?
Maybe it's really stupid.
Because there is a belief in Neon, an almost religious belief, that it is impossible for the stock market to fall. After the 1987 crash, Neon could hold up the global financial market. Nothing can prevent Neon's stock price from rising to 100,000 yuan.
Guan. They feel that there is something very special that exists in their market and in the entire nation. This special thing can make neon go against all the laws that exist around the world.
This is an intoxicating neon dream. In the pursuit of the 100,000-point mark, Morgan Stanley, together with Salomon Brothers and other investment banks, entered neon and found the major local insurance companies in neon.
company, and are touting their new product, stock index call options.
Even in order to increase the credibility of this stock index call option, major investment banks have gone through the hands of the King of Denmark to ensure its gold content and credibility.
As a result, it was naturally a big hit.
In the words of former Prime Minister Neon, Americans are an inferior race and extremely stupid.
From the perspective of major insurance companies, there is no stupider investment than selling stock index put options.
If the stock market goes up, you get one hundred dollars; if the stock market goes down, you lose one dollar.
Such a stupid deal, of course I have to buy it.
Then... Neon's major insurance companies bought stock index call options launched by Morgan and Salomon, and Neon's major funds and trust companies also bought huge amounts of stock index call options.
The reasons are different. From the perspective of major insurance companies, this is a sure-profit and huge-profit deal. For major public funds and trust companies, this is a good financial product hedging tool. If
When the stock market rises, the stock positions held by trust institutions and funds can bring profits. If the stock falls, the purchased stock index put options are fulfilled, and the profits compensated by major foreign investment banks can be obtained.
As it turns out, this was indeed a stupid investment.
Anthony Garder, Morgan Stanley executives, Salomon Brothers, and many of their peers did not expect that the neon terror had gone beyond normal economic theory. During the painful wait, Salomon Brothers unfortunately reached the edge of bankruptcy in 1990.
Due to incorrect risk estimation, the stock index call options sold by Salomon Brothers were beyond the company's tolerance, resulting in losses of up to 10 billion U.S. dollars, and it could only be acquired by Travelers Group.
In the mid-1980s, it became a giant on Wall Street and an empire in the financial world. No one expected that Salomon Brothers would sink in the neon sand, or worse, sink before dawn.
Loss is painful.
For four years, one by one of his peers went bankrupt or was annexed due to facing market risks. The torment in Anthony Guardian's heart was extremely difficult.
Now, after four years of waiting, the moment of victory has finally arrived.
"Pah, pah, pah -"
Anthony Garder stopped at the door of the president's office with excited steps.
The lights are still on in the office.
Who would have thought that in Wall Street, which represents luxury, money and depravity in the eyes of outsiders, working overtime can only be considered a daily routine, and staying up all night or even 72 hours without sleep is common.
Knocking on the office door, Anthony Garder straightened his collar and stepped in.
Chapter completed!