Is this guy an idiot?

An idea couldn't help but emerge in the minds of HSBC and its group.

HSBC is a global bank chain, and McRaishweather is the executive president of HSBC Holdings Hong Kong and is also the highest executive director of HSBC Asia.

He knows more about the situation in the Southeast Asian real estate market than many people.

From 1983 to 1989, after the European economy had been growing for seven years, the economy was improving, and it would naturally grow accordingly. However, with the continuous injection of capital, the increase in production capacity has begun to occur, and the market economy began to oversupply.

In 1988, the European economic growth rate was 4.3, and by 1989 it fell to 3.3.

The slowdown in economic growth has made many foresighted capital feel the crisis.

Because history has verified countless times that economic development has cycles, and when the contradiction between productive forces and production relations in capitalist society expands, an economic crisis will come.

This is an inevitable economic cycle.

Capital determines prices. When prices rise, the supply system will rise under the driving force of profits, and the supply and demand relationship will expand, including human resources, material resources and production capacity, and overcapacity will trigger an economic crisis and the industry will be reshuffled.

This is an insurmountable contradiction between productive forces and production relations in capitalist society, and can also be called systemic risk.

In 1990, the overall European economy slowed down again, and the growth rate dropped to 2.2%.

Capital is ultimately pursuing profits. The European economy has been declining one after another, and liquid capital has begun to put its targets all over the world.

The US market has just emerged from the economic crisis, but it is still unstable and has great risks. The Japanese market has experienced a heavy crisis and was dragged into the bottomless abyss by real estate. Investors who go bankrupt and jump off buildings every day are lined up on the roof.

Only Southeast Asian countries are in the early stages of development because of their low human resources and resources prices.

In particular, Neon Capital, the world's second largest economy, is constantly injecting into Southeast Asian countries. With these capital injections, the economies of Southeast Asian countries are developing rapidly.

Four countries, led by Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia, have already shown a trend of catching up with developed regions such as Hong Kong and Singapore, and are called the Asian miracle.

The "Four Little Tigers" and the "Four Little Dragons" are side by side, showing the world the unlimited potential of Asia.

HSBC bank data shows that in addition to neon, Western European capital is also constantly pouring into emerging market countries in Southeast Asia, where real estate and securities markets are booming under capital drive.

Almost every week, the securities markets in Southeast Asian countries are rising, and real estate prices are also rising continuously.

The data sent back by branches of various countries is very clear. The income of residents in these countries has been rising, the GDP growth rate is changing with each passing day, the number of real estate investors continues to increase, the supply and loans are good, and the bad debts in real estate are almost less than one percent.

The momentum is like a sharp blade soaring into the sky, and the strong development trend is fully visible.

However, some people are trying to short Southeast Asian real estate.

Mai Ruiweither looked at Shen Jiannan with strange eyes.

He was thinking to himself, was this guy's head disoriented, or was his youth's frivolous mentality so arrogant that he forgot that he had a strong and strong world?

Take Thailand as an example.

Under the injection of capital, Thailand has experienced more than ten years of slow development and its economy has been advancing rapidly. In May, the Bank of Thailand even relaxed restrictions on foreign capital inflows. Every month, the capital flowing from HSBC to Thailand is in units of billions of US dollars.

Driven by these capitals, Thailand set has been rising continuously, and the real estate industry is booming in the early sun, and they are all in an upward cycle.

It can also be understood as trend.

This is an economic law that the capital market cannot violate.

As a senior banker, Maireweather knows how terrible the cyclical nature of this economic law is.

History has proved countless times that if you go against this periodicity, you will definitely die miserably.

The most intuitive manifestation is the securities market. A downward market, like a bomb falling from the sky. Anyone who dares to take it will be blown to pieces.

The rising market is a sharp sword that is unsheathed, and it is also a bullet that has just been fired. If it does not block the bullet when it reaches its maximum range, it will inevitably be shot to death by the bullet.

Just like the United States.

After 1929, the U.S. stock market and real estate industry rose for fifty-seven years. In these fifty-seven years, no matter how sluggish the U.S. economy was, real estate prices never really fell.

Because real estate is the most powerful asset in any country, all countries will try their best to protect the stable development of the real estate market at all costs.

It was not until the US dollar exchange rate was unstable in 1985 that the U.S. financial crisis broke out and dragged real estate into the abyss.

But before this, the US economy has been declining, and the US dollar exchange rate has been depreciating, which has long been a sign of a sign.

Nowadays, the emerging market countries in Southeast Asia have only a great momentum, and it is impossible for a sudden real estate collapse.

The same is true for Hong Kong and other countries.

After 1949, Hong Kong's economy has been advancing rapidly, and real estate prices have continued to rise.

Maireweather knew the reason very well.

Since the emergence of currency, human beings have established countless monetary systems. The gold standard, the silver standard to the silver standard, and then to the credibility standard today.

But no matter any currency issuance system, the final collapse cannot be avoided.

The reason is that human society is a form of a pyramid structure.

Under this form, no matter what monetary system it is, it will inevitably face the day of collapse.

Human selfishness and greed drive social progress.

With the purchasing power of currency, countless people can create value for this society.

But everyone's abilities are different after all.

Some are smart, some are hardworking, some are stupid, and some are lazy.

For a variety of reasons, the issuance scale of currency will only become larger and larger, so large that it will collapse naturally on the day it will collapse. Because if the issuance of currency is not increased, the fixed amount of currency will make some of them impoverished.

Just like one hundred yuan is allocated to one hundred people, if the total amount of money is not expanded, the final result must be that eighty of them will be penniless.

But this result is not conducive to the stable development of society.

Therefore, the currency can only be injected into water and issued when needed. Only by ensuring that the lowest-level people can survive normally can they create greater value.

Based on this economic and political principle, the issuance of currency will only increase and the symbol of money will only increase.

Therefore, prices will only rise in theory.

As for the decline.

It's not impossible, but the probability is very small.

From the data and economic theory, the rise can be infinite, but the decline is limited. Even if Japan's real estate collapses now, it has only reached its limit after decades of continuous rise after the war.

And if we want to investigate the reason, the main reason is that the Japanese government itself chose to retreat bravely, which is not the market's own movement trajectory.

"Shen. I think our bank needs to discuss it. It will take about a little time. Do you think it's OK?"

"certainly."

"Thank you for understanding."

“…”

Soon, Mai Ruiweither led his team to send Shen Jiannan and his group out of the bank. As Lincoln's back gradually faded away, he immediately showed the reaction ability that top bankers should have.

"John, let's confirm the data of the real estate markets in various countries. We need to carefully study the possible risks."

"Ok!"
Chapter completed!