Some personal analysis of the Olympics, the stock market, the real estate market, and Europe and the
Please remember this original sentence. This is the barking words of CNN's popular show host Carverty. Maybe one day we can return it to him!
"I don't know if China is different, but our relationship with China is definitely different.
First, the Chinese people's hostility towards us attracted our attention, one of the reasons was the Iraq War. They took our hundreds of billions of dollars, and we also accumulated their tens of billions of dollars in trade deficits, because we kept inputting their lead-painted garbage products and toxic pet food, and exporting their jobs to places where you can give workers a one-yuan monthly salary to make what we bought at Wal-Mart. So I think our relationship with China has certainly changed. I think they are basically a bunch of thugs and villains, just like the past 50 years."
The original text of Jack Cafferty's passage is as follows: "Well, Idon't know about Chinaisan different, butourrelationship with Chinaiscertainly different.
We’re in hawk to the Chinese up to be in the warin Iraq, foronething.
They’re holding hundredsof billionsof dollars for dollars worth four paper.
Wealthy arriving in the past tense, wealthy arriving in the past tense, we are not going to get out of the stuff that we’re buying from Wal Mart.
SoItinkouurrelationship with Chinahascertainly changed.
Ithinkthey’re basically thesamebunchofgoonsandthugsthey’vebeenforthelast50 years”.
Why does CNN do this? I'm full and overwhelmed? I'm going to offend China? What are the benefits for Western countries?
Here is a bloodblade quoted an article I forwarded last year. Here we will find some answers to the stock price and housing price issues that Chinese people are most concerned about this year.
What I want to say is, please understand the central government and support the two leaders of HW. At least this time the government did a good job! The biggest loss is not the tens of millions of retail investors in China, but the biggest loss is the consortium giants controlled by the Western government!
The Sino-US financial war has already begun, and China is in a difficult situation!
Money is a weapon that is more powerful than weapons - the appreciation of the RMB and the appreciation of the RMB and China and the United States are now very concerned about the topic of appreciation of the RMB, but they do not understand what the United States’ real intention of forcing the appreciation of the RMB. Now I would like to express my personal opinion on this shallowly!
I believe everyone is concerned about the "Japanese economic recession" in the 1980s, the "Asian financial crisis" in the 1990s and the "Hong Kong financial defense war"!
Some people may say that it was done by the international speculative group "American Soros Consortium", but you have never thought that there is no support from the US government behind it?
Next, I will analyze the causes and consequences of these events carefully and you will understand.
Since 1980, especially in 1990 and 1995, what is the GDP gap between the first-place United States and the second-place Japan? Japan's GDP exceeds half of the United States' GDP! This is the only time that the economic gap between other countries and the United States has narrowed to half.
The Japanese cheered: As long as the GDP exceeds the United States, Japan can return to a "normal country"!
The Americans did not say anything. Logically speaking, Japan is still an ally of the United States, and its economy was supported by the United States, and the United States did not need to split Japan (it was split during World War II, and there was no need to wait until the 1980s). The United States could not use "subversive incitement" against its ally Japan.
It seems that the United States cannot stop the development prospects of Japan's economy! Countries around the world are excitedly looking forward to the "historic moment" when Japan's GDP exceeds the United States' GDP! Japanese companies are even more crazy, and the symbol of the US economy - Rockefeller Square - was bought by the Japanese! The spiritual symbol of the United States - Hollywood - was bought by the Japanese! The mood of the American people suddenly fell to the bottom. "The world's number one" is almost unable to be preserved! The sense of glory of the American people is declining sharply, and the people begin to spread hatred of Japan.
In 1980, Japan's GDP was almost half that of the United States. One thing happened in 1985. In 1985, the United States attracted five other countries (Group of 7) to force Japan to sign. It used "administrative means" to force the yen to appreciate. In fact, one of the central ideas is that the Bank of Japan must not "excessively" interfere in the foreign exchange market.
Japan had sufficient US dollar foreign exchange reserves at that time. If the Bank of Japan intervened, the yen would not be worth it. Unfortunately, Japan was a eunuch who had lost power. The US troops were infiltrated and politically infiltrated, and even the Constitution was tailor-made by Americans. It was impossible not to sign the square agreement without signing it.
Everyone knows the final outcome of Japan. The Plaza Agreement in September 1985 was in early 1988. The United States asked the yen to appreciate. According to the agreement, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar rose from 1 dollar to 240 yen before the agreement to 1 dollar to 160 yen in May 1986.
As the Reagan administration of the United States insisted that the appreciation of the yen was still insufficient, it continued to push up the yen through oral intervention and other forms. In this way, by the beginning of 1988, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar further rose to 1 dollar against 120 yen, just as the exchange rate before the Plaza Accord increased.
Are Americans satisfied? No!
Then look at it. From February 1993 to April 1995, then the Secretary of Treasury of the Clinton administration made it clear that in order to correct the imbalance between Japan and the United States, the yen needs to appreciate by about 20%. At that time, the exchange rate of the yen was roughly around 1 US dollar to 120 yen. Therefore, according to the US government's inducement target, the yen market quickly rose to 1 US dollar to 100 yen.
Later, the Clinton administration took a relatively strict attitude towards Japan-US economic relations with automobile friction as the core. By April 1995, the exchange rate of the yen soared to 1 dollar against 79 yen, setting a record high.
What are the consequences of the appreciation of the yen? Rockefeller Square is back in the hands of Americans, and General Motors makes a net profit of $400 million from selling and buying in this square! Japanese capital exits the United States at a large scale due to difficulties.
The American people won! They successfully repelled Japan's economic offensive! We can take the example from the example to see after 1995, the GDP ratio between Japan and the United States has been further widened, and it has become larger and larger!
Some netizens may still not understand what the appreciation of the yen is? What does it have to do with our discussion? The appreciation of the yen is an economic blocking war between the United States and Japan! It has successfully transferred Japan's development wealth for more than 20 years to the United States.
Let me give you an example to you will understand. Suppose I am an American consortium, of course I know what will happen in 1985. Suppose I was in 1983, I exchanged 10 billion US dollars for 2400 billion yen, entered the Japanese market, and bought Japanese stocks and real estate. The booming Japanese economy caused the stock market to rise like crazy. In 1985, the square agreement was signed, and the yen began to appreciate. By the beginning of 1988, the stock market and real estate assumed that I had doubled (doubling it in five years was the lowest assumption), which was 4800 billion yen.
At this time, the yen appreciated to 1:120. I sold out Japan's real estate and stocks in one year and then exchanged them back to the US dollar, which is 40 billion US dollars! In 5 years, I made a net profit of 30 billion US dollars! (It's still the lowest assumption).
What about Japan? The huge amount of foreign capital that suddenly left led to the collapse of the Japanese economy! The term in economics is called "the bubble economy burst". This is what Japan often says: "the lost decade". And I returned to the United States with 40 billion US dollars of capital and interest. Think about it, can the US economy not be prosperous?!!
Japan’s “lost decade” is the “prosperous decade” of the United States!
Just look at my table above. I am just one of the American consortiums, what about the other consortiums? Hehe, and my assumption is only until 1988. If it was by 1995, the yen appreciated to 1:79, can you and I imagine how much wealth the United States has scraped away from Japan in the victory of this economic war?
The United States has made enough money, and the yen has now returned to the 1:140 position. The US dollar's firmness is still the same as 30 years ago! The temporary depreciation of the US dollar has not damaged the international status of the US dollar. This economic war between the United States and Japan ended with the United States winning the entire victory!!
Americans are addicted to playing. In 1998, the same technique came again on the four little dragons and four little tigers in Southeast Asia. This is the Asian financial crisis!
The only difference is that there is no need for a square agreement this time. Because the foreign exchange reserves of these little tigers and dragons in Asia can win a big victory by directly blocking them!
However, the United States, which was rich, strong in military affairs, and pursued hegemony, has also seen the ending that Southeast Asian currencies rose first and then fell, and the achievements of economic development were plundered by the United States! The only market that held Soros' offensive without economic collapse was Hong Kong after returning, which preserved the fruits of Hong Kong's development for decades.
At that time, Soros launched world public opinion (including Hong Kong public opinion) and attacked the Hong Kong government (Chinese government) for "administrative intervention in the market", violating market economy rules and without democracy and freedom. If China succumbed to the pressure of the world's public opinion and did not use "macro control" to intervene in the market, it would lead to a disaster. I don't know how many Chinese people would jump off a building and commit suicide as bankrupt as Japan back then!
At that time, Tsang later said: "The night before the decision was made to intervene in the government, I sat on the head of the bed and cried, not for myself, but for fear that if this decision was wrong and harmed Hong Kong, how could I explain to the central government to the citizens?"
Now you know why the United States has repeatedly demanded that other countries have "freedom of the press", "market economy", and "democracy and human rights" be based on their own interests. You must know the correctness and advantages of our country's "macro-control" policy.
Has the United States stopped? No, because the growth of my country's comprehensive power has increased, the strengthening of national strength has threatened the fundamental interests of the United States and the authority of "the world's number one". Recently, "China publicly supports Annan, who is in trouble due to the son scandal, accusing the United States of deliberately taking advantage of the issue to conduct life attacks." This is the best proof. So the United States is unhappy and wants to slander people. Now forcing the appreciation of the RMB is the first step to weaken China.
Do you understand? Do you know why the central government suddenly suppressed the real estate markets in Shanghai and Beijing? Do you know why the Chinese stock market is so miserable?
Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan once said something in March or April: "There is a $4 billion foreign investment in Shanghai that speculates in real estate, and has withdrawn from China's foreign investment, so it's better not to be so!"
Do you understand? The Chinese stock market is a weak stock market and is easily exploited by the US consortium. The central government cannot relax its control over the stock market, otherwise the Chinese economy will collapse in the attacks of foreign capital!
Some time ago, in early December this year, another $24 billion foreign consortium evacuated Shanghai, China.
Now, everyone has some understanding of the advantages of the country's macro-control. It is clear how wise and timely it is for the country to introduce so many policies for real estate!
Now you know why China has to implement national foreign exchange controls, exchange rate control, suppress real estate, and control the stock market. You know why China has to maintain huge foreign exchange reserves, why the central bank has recently issued new real estate loan regulations, why the Chinese government has always demanded a balance between import and export trade, why it is necessary to expand the Southeast Asian trade market and the EU market, and why it has to add WTO.
In fact, the economic war between China and the United States has already begun, and hundreds of moves have been repeated back and forth.
Most of our netizens are still staring at the Taiwan Strait in a daze, staring at the US military in Central Asia. We should know that the disaster of economic collapse is far more serious than the consequences of a military war.
There are only two types of military wars: "war of aggression" and "war of presidency".
The ultimate goal of the military "war of aggression" is to defeat everything (military and economic strength) of the other party to occupy the other party's territory, plunder resources, control, enslave and exploit the other party's citizens. Such things have not happened in Chinese history, so I will give examples here.
Today's United States uses military aggression war as a means to achieve the goal of enslaving and exploiting the other party (for weak countries), and you will understand it by looking at the current "Iraq".
The United States actually invaded and occupied Iraq and controlled Iraq's oil to meet the huge demand in the United States; and for the powerful former Soviet Union (the former Soviet Union had the nuclear power to control the other side's death), the United States had to launch an economic offensive to drag them down, and the division of the Soviet Union was the best example.
Some people may say that it was the arms race during the Cold War and the Soviet Union's domestic policies at that time that led to the disintegration of the former Soviet Union due to economic collapse.
But have you ever thought that the arms race was based on economic strength. At that time, the United States' economic strength was stronger than the Soviet Union, so the United States won and the Soviet Union collapsed.
Now it's our turn. Our country's current economic and military strength is not as strong as the Soviet Union during the Cold War. The similarity is that our country also has nuclear weapons to destroy the United States, but the number is a little smaller.
In this round, it depends on the wisdom of our leaders. Establishing reasonable policies to avoid risks and protect ourselves is the top priority (happy that our country is already doing this now).
However, the United States is not idle either. Moreover, as the first step in the economic offensive, they have taken early. Many things have happened to acquire China's "Xuzhou Heavy Industry" from a world-class speculative consortium like the United States "Carle Consortium" and I will not give an example of this here.
Their purpose is very clear, to control China's core technology, carry out global technology monopoly, and force the volume. At the same time, multiplying the exchange rate before it changes, the Chinese People's Bank of China has forced the People's Bank of China to issue a large amount of RMB to cope with a large amount of currency exchange demand, laying the groundwork for dragging down the Chinese economy.
This is still open and secretly, and it is even more impossible to count. Speaking of this, many people may not understand what the behavior of large-scale US dollars to RMB has to do with dragging down the Chinese economy.
Here, I will explain: before a large number of American consortiums maliciously poured into China to exchange a large amount of dollars for the RMB, our country's economic form was relatively stable.
However, in fact, the amount of RMB issued by my country is far less than the amount of wealth accumulated by the people of our country, because any currency can ensure the normal economic activities of the country, because the cost of printing currency is very high.
For example: China has a population of 1.3 billion, with an average wealth of 10,000 yuan per person, and China has a total wealth of 13 trillion yuan.
In real life, it is impossible for everyone to bring all their wealth with them. Here we will average them. On average, each person carries 1,000 yuan in cash (the carrying amount is 10%, which is actually a large amount), and the rest are stored in the bank.
In other words, under normal circumstances, the amount of cash (the term is: cash flow) is 100 billion yuan, multiplied by a certain mutation coefficient (for the sake of ease of calculation, the ideal value is 100%). In other words, under normal economic activities, China can only issue 200 billion yuan to meet its own economic activities.
A large number of malicious foreign consortiums poured into China, which was a boost to my country's economy on the surface, and that was, the domestic consumption increased, that is, the domestic demand for cash flow increased. In this way, in order to meet the demand for mass consumption, my country would print and issue a large amount of RMB to meet this demand (this was the case in Japan back then).
According to statistics, there are currently 136 trillion US dollars in the international financial market. As long as 1% of them pour into China for speculation, at the current exchange rate, my country will issue 10.895584 trillion RMB (1.36*7.8644=10.695584+0.2=10.895584 trillion RMB). The total amount of currency issuance has exceeded 10 times that of my country's existing foreign exchange reserves (1 trillion US dollars). It is difficult to deal with its opponents if all China's foreign exchange reserves are used.
At this time, our country's state-owned economy is negative 9.895584 trillion yuan, which cannot be counted as all the wealth of the whole Chinese people, because the national economy collapses and the wealth in our hands is worthless.
If the RMB appreciates, they use the RMB at hand to leverage US dollars, and a large amount of RMB will remain in China.
In this way, the Chinese people and the world will lose confidence in China and no longer reserve, use or even sell the reserved RMB, which will frustrate China's foreign trade activities, eventually leading to domestic inflation in China, leading to a credibility crisis on the outside and thus leading to a financial crisis.
Just like inflation in the 1940s, a box of matches would be sold for hundreds of yuan. If the Chinese government made a wrong decision on the RMB exchange rate this time, then the economic achievements of China's reform and opening up over the past 30 years may fall into the hands of others.
Recently, in terms of domestic economic forms, objective forms are not optimistic. Logically speaking, the RMB has appreciated, that is, the money is valuable, which should be something that used to cost only 90 cents or even 80 cents. However, in the current domestic forms, except for the fact that the salary has not increased, the rest have increased.
Xinhuanet reported that since August, the price of edible oil in Beijing has fluctuated and risen. In November, the prices of rice, noodles, vegetable prices and side dishes have all risen to varying degrees.
The report believes that the price of edible oil is affected by the rise in the international soybean market prices.
However, rice and flour followed the trend, with the 25 kilograms of Riqiang noodles rising by more than 12%, and 500 grams of rice rose by 6 cents.
It is understood that in Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, grain and oil, the daily necessities have risen and risen, and have lasted for more than a month. Among them, the highest increases in flour and edible oil have reached 10% and 20% respectively.
The price increase of agricultural and sideline products shows that my country's economy is developing and improving. At the same time, the price increase of agricultural and sideline products is used to increase farmers' income and maintain social stability, and provide a good domestic environment for the development of the country. It is beneficial to the development of the country, because the number of Chinese farmers accounts for more than 70% of the total population after all.
However, the price increase of daily necessities in these four major cities in China was accidental.
The macro-control that lasted for more than seven months did not stabilize housing prices. On the contrary, it led to the steadily rising housing prices.
Economists have long warned that the real estate bubble will lead to inflation and inflation will trigger an economic crisis. However, this sound is too weak, and the current signs indicate that inflation is approaching us step by step.
Compared with Tokyo in 1996 and Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen in 1997, signs of the real estate bubble burst have already appeared.
Local governments that try to continue to raise housing prices for their own self-interest will face ruthless punishment from economic laws.
Because this round of inflation was issued without any warning and may not be officially recognized, but it has actually arrived.
This inflation, which is in its infancy, chose the best time to lead to an economic crisis - New Year's Day and before the Spring Festival in 2007.
Therefore, the harm and destructiveness are greater. If one day the instant noodles start to rise, the economic crisis will no longer be curbed. The successive price increase and comprehensive price increase of food, rice, oil, salt, water, electricity, oil and gas will not have any impact on the normal life of the Chinese rich class, but millions of ordinary citizens will have to pay more wealth to maintain the same standard of living as before.
In other words, China's high housing prices are indirectly paid by ordinary urban residents. It took Japan's citizens 15 years, and Hong Kong citizens 14 years.
So, how many years does it take for urban residents in China?
To cope with the upcoming inflation, the country naturally has financial means.
However, China's RMB has been attacked by the US dollar in the international market and appreciates by 5% within one year, and there is still room for continued appreciation.
China's trade surplus will gradually narrow in the appreciation of the RMB, and risks in the international market are intensifying. The overall price increase of daily necessities in the domestic market will directly affect consumption.
Finally, the central bank is forced to increase the issuance of RMB, and China's inflation broke out. This crisis may also be near.
The current experience of the RMB in the international currency market is something that has not happened since China's exchange system reform. We already know what the US dollar is going to do?
However, we cannot solve the problems in the international market, and the RMB is so embarrassing at home. Driven by the price increase of real estate, daily necessities have increased in an all-round way, forming two completely different markets between the international and domestic markets.
In a sense, such a market will move towards excessive capital speculation. To put it bluntly, it will intensify the gap between the rich and the poor in Chinese society and give capital tycoons the opportunity to take advantage of it.
If we analyze it in a deeper way, the RMB seems to have been siege from different aspects, trying to gradually erode the achievements of China's economic development over the past 30 years.
Next, the increase in daily necessities will further intensify, citizens' purchasing power will further decline, the domestic market will further shrink, and China's production capacity will further be oversupplied. In the end, it will inevitably lead to a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises going bankrupt, and the economic crisis will come at any time.
To truly resolve this crisis, for the current economic situation, we will further increase the intensity of macro-control, streamline the management system of the real estate market, take effective measures, and resolutely lower housing prices, so that urban residents can feel the power of China's economy in the process of falling housing prices, thereby enhancing their confidence in the future.
Perhaps, this is the most important thing to do at the moment, although some superficial work has been done. We must be clear about the harm of high housing prices, especially the destruction of Chinese society, which is unprecedented.
Maybe there is no need to be too pessimistic now, everything should turn around. Everyone knows that there is a major problem in China's economy, just like a high-speed train with obvious failures, rumbling forward, rumbling and rumbling, unknown when it will derail or subvert.
Some economists predict that China's economy will land hard in 2008, and social unrest will inevitably occur.
So, if such a big problem occurs, what is the crux of the problem? Ma Xiaohe, an expert from the National Development and Reform Commission, pointed out that my country is evolving from an oversupply in one aspect to a comprehensive oversupply.
Due to overcapacity and low domestic demand, Chinese products are forced to export, which has led to a large number of trade frictions, and the risk of over-reliance on the international market is increasing.
Ma Xiaohe gave an example: Chinese people provide a pair of shoes to everyone in the world, which shows how much overcapacity of shoes is.
On November 23, Suning, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, also stated that China's final consumption accounted for GDP has dropped from more than 62% in the 1980s to 52.1% in 2005, and the residents' consumption rate has also dropped from 48.8% in 1991 to 38.2% in 2005, both reaching historical lows.
While China's residents' consumption rate continues to decline, the world's average consumption rate reaches 78%-79%, which is as big as the sky and the ground.
The two above are experts in the macro economy and the other are financial authorities, but they point out a common problem, which is that overcapacity is caused by insufficient domestic demand. Once there are major risks in the international market, thousands of industrial enterprises in China will face the danger of survival.
Let’s take a look at what are the driving forces that have promoted China’s rapid economic development in recent years: If we take overall Chinese economy, we can find that the first thing that promotes China’s rapid economic growth is investment, consumption, and exports. It can be said that this is the “three horses that run side by side.”
However, in our practice, "focus on investment, exports, and consumption," which is the appearance of the problem.
Why do Chinese people "focus on investment, exports, and neglect consumption?" Even though they know that consumption is productivity, there is no productivity without consumption. This is a simple economic common sense, but in the layout of macroeconomic development, even Marx's theory of surplus value is ignored?
If you analyze it carefully, you will find interesting phenomena: First, local governments focus on investment, which in the past few years showed the "development zone" fever, later the "main construction" fever, and then the "real estate" fever;
Second, the export of heavy industrial products for large and medium-sized enterprises. Whether it is listed companies or private enterprises, as long as the production scale is formed, the focus is on the international market, from automobiles, home appliances, shoes, socks, lighters, and ancient brain exports.
As for the "investment" fever, high housing prices have circulated the wealth of the people and even two generations, and another generation has suffered heavy debts; as for the "export" fever, the trade surplus continues to intensify, trade frictions continue to increase, and the pressure on the appreciation of the RMB is getting greater and greater. Some economists have analyzed that the RMB has appreciated 5% since the exchange rate reform, and the current situation is that it is possible that it will appreciate 5% in 2007, which is equivalent to the total appreciation in the first 10 years.
So what is the consequence? Many economists are so secretive. I can tell you boldly that the consequence is that the RMB flows out of the country from different channels, and international money laundering forces take the opportunity to intervene, and even whitewash the money of Chinese corrupt officials.
It can be said that before 2007, I only heard that foreigners came to China to launder money, and this situation would change as a result. Chinese people finally went abroad to launder money.
To put it more deeply, the wealth created by the Chinese people was quietly "stolen" by others, and the words of "bandits? Mr. Ma Xiaohe, an expert from the National Development and Reform Commission, look at how to solve the problem of overcapacity.
In fact, it is very simple. The solution to overcapacity is to stimulate consumption, and the only way to stimulate consumption is to lower housing prices. If housing prices do not drop, Chinese people will inevitably put a lot of pressure on their future expectations and dare not consume, and some of them become house slaves who have no money to consume.
Mr. Ma Xiaohe said that half of China's industrial product utilization rate is less than 50%, so in order to reduce risks, domestic demand must be expanded. How can domestic demand be expanded? The consumption rate of Chinese residents is 38.2%, the world average consumption rate is 78%-79%, and the average housing price-to-income ratio of Chinese residents is one to ten, and the world average housing price-to-income ratio is one to two. The crux of China's economic problems is exposed. It is that the outrageously high housing prices have plundered all the wealth of Chinese residents. What else can they use to consume? Therefore, the consumption rate of Chinese people has hit a historical low.
Some experts predict that every point of decline in China's housing prices will increase the market by more than 10 billion in consumption per year, and China's housing prices will have at least 30% room for decline from the comprehensive average price in the first three quarters of 2006. That is to say, as long as China's housing prices drop by 30%, the Chinese market will increase the total consumption by 300 billion in a year, and the problems of China's economy will be solved, and the Chinese people can live a good life from now on.
On the contrary, if our country fails to control the situation if the leader makes a decision, our country's economy will collapse, and our country's national strength will inevitably suffer from a strong external military blow. We all know how harsh the international environment we are in now.
Faced with the current complex international situation, China must have the ability to win two wars, one is military war, and the other is economic war. It is very common in human history to use war means to seize the wealth of other countries and other countries.
Even today in the 21st century, we can still see it. In order to protect the lives and property of the Chinese people and the possible military conflicts, China must build a strong army, a strong navy, a strong air force and a powerful sky army (space force).
Today, when humans enter the 21st century, whoever occupy the commanding heights of space will have the initiative in future wars. Any idea of demilitarization of space can only be a daydream! The saint said it well: Being behind will lead to be beaten! Only when China has the ability to completely destroy its opponents can others not dare to bully China.
At the same time, as mankind enters the 21st century, due to the globalization of international exchanges and trade, a new war, economic war has replaced military wars and become the main means for some people in the world to seize another part of their property in the 1997 Southeast Asia financial crisis is an example of economic wars.
The backward Southeast Asian countries suffered a major blow. International financial speculators achieved the goals that had to be achieved in the past with war. In the later battle for Hong Kong's financial defense, Tsang Yi-kwon, then the Secretary for Administration of Hong Kong and Ren Zhigang, the Secretary for Administration of Finance, with the support of the Chinese central government, used a large amount of foreign exchange reserves to interfere with the stock market in Hong Kong. The Chinese central government sent two deputy governors of the central bank to Hong Kong, asking all Chinese institutions in Hong Kong to do their best to support the Hong Kong government's support campaign. After several months of competition, the Hong Kong government successfully repelled the attempt of international financial speculators to treat Hong Kong as an ATM.
The struggle was very fierce. When the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong changed by 1 point, the trading of futures would be different from HK$230 million. Although the war on Hong Kong's financial defense has been going on for many years, I have been wondering if there was no strong China as a backing, would the possibility of the "Eight-Nation Alliance" attack on Hong Kong? After all, the Hong Kong government's intervention in the Hong Kong stock market violated the "rules" of today's mainstream international society.
China Aviation Oil (Singapore) lost $500 million in the international oil futures market and a Chinese SASAC employee was eaten up again during the same period in London. It shows that China still has a lot to learn in the financial market.
As for oil, China now spends tens of billions of dollars more every year. Now, what China needs, the international commodity market will rise. It can be said that it is "no negotiation for you."
However, the harm of the prices of oil and other commodities to the Chinese economy is not the most serious. The real harm to the Chinese economy is the RMB exchange rate system and the rising real estate market. I always feel that some people want to use the RMB exchange rate as a breakthrough to destroy China's economy and seize the economic achievements of the Chinese people.
From the shouts of renminbi appreciation and free floating, I seemed to smell the fire of military war.
Now there is a saying that is better than singing. Let the RMB exchange rate float freely and is determined by the market. Is there a ghost in the market?
It sounds fair to decide by the market, and everyone has the right to do so. But if you analyze it carefully, which market in the world is not controlled by a few people? Let the RMB exchange rate be determined by the market, to put it bluntly, it is up to them.
The Chinese government and people must not forget the financial crisis in Southeast Asia in 1997. A considerable part of foreign capital is the ambush. They are waiting for the United States to knock China's door open (the RMB exchange rate fluctuates freely), hold the RMB to heaven, and make huge profits.
In short, China must build a powerful army, a powerful navy, a powerful air force and a powerful sky army (space force) that is not afraid of hardship or death to deal with possible military wars.
At the same time, China must build a financial "iron army" that loves the country, has an international perspective, and is proficient in international competition rules to deal with economic wars. Only in this way can China's security and people's wealth be protected!
The above content is a concern and speculation about China's future economy last year, but from the reality, all the above has been realized. I believe everyone knows the specific performance.
First, the very prominent object is the stock market. As far as I know, the original intention of the Western consortium is to reach 8,000 to 10,000 points, and prepare to defeat the Chinese stock market again during or after the Olympics and steal the labor results of the Chinese economy.
But what they didn't expect was that the Chinese government would start to take action at the end of last year, and in March this year it almost pushed him to the beginning of the so-called bull market.
(What an accident! I happened to see many book friends who actually made warm speeches to this view, so Bloodblade deliberately modified the contents to prevent book friends from being so tired.
In view of this, I have added some content now, which is also a hidden speculation for book lovers who trade stocks. However, whether it will succeed in the future and whether it will reach the level of Blood Blade, this is just a prediction. Let me say it first, hehe, it can only be used as a reference for everyone.
Personally, I think that from a long-term perspective, from where and back to that similar position is a normal category, so I warn book friends again that the bottom is very deep, so when entering, it is better to take a look and consider more!)
Second, the rise in housing prices, who would have thought that housing prices in Beijing, Shenzhen and Shanghai would rise to this level?
I think no one would have thought of it, nor would I have thought of it. Otherwise, if I had bought two houses worth 4,000 yuan per square meter in Shenzhen three years ago (I remember when I was in Shenzhen two years ago, the house price of OCT was only more than 5,000 yuan per square meter, but now? More than 20,000 yuan per square meter), then I would have sent it!
But who did all this? Could it be that our Chinese people do it? Can the working people in Beijing and Shanghai speculate on housing prices so high? I don’t believe it if I beat them to death. Think about how Japan was stolen by the United States in the above-mentioned period, I think most people will understand.
Why did Western countries unite this time? Germany and France in Europe generally do not take such risks to offend China, an economic power.
During the Iraq War, Germany and France both stood by China and did not support the United States in using force against Iraq. Offending the United States for Iraq is not in their national interests. In order not to offend China, France terminated arms sales to Taiwan 10 years ago, losing billions of revenue. Why do they take such a great risk today to openly become enemies with China? It is so difficult to make Tibet and the Olympics, which have nothing to do with it?
Another question worth thinking about is why the United States, which has always been the leader of the West, is so low-key this time? Let Britain, France and Germany play the leading role in the front desk?
Western countries are very clear about Tibet. No matter how much trouble it is, China will never make concessions. They are also very clear about the Olympics. Even if there is no leader of Western countries attending the Beijing Olympics, China will just be unable to overcome its face. Will it have a substantial impact on China? No.
So, Tibet is just a cover, and the Olympics is just a cover. So what exactly do they want to get from China?
The main reason is that they have suffered huge losses this year, and Beijing's approach has turned them into Chinese shareholders and Chinese landlords.
Then of course they have to go crazy. The purpose of crazy is to make China's RMB appreciate, and to make ZF push up stock prices and house prices under pressure, but what disappoints them is that China is moving in the opposite direction.
Western countries are facing the danger of an economic recession in the past 10 years. They need a strong country to pay for this Western economic recession. It goes without saying that they thought of China at the same time.
As an ordinary person, I have no research on the international economy, but at the beginning of 2008, I still vaguely saw the dangers facing China's economy. Now I remembered what Premier Wen said: 2008 may be the most difficult year for China's economy. Now I think of this farce ongoing, it is really a bit confusing.
The United States is not low-key, but very calm. They have already made moves without showing any silence:
1. The US dollar depreciates. Because the US dollar depreciates and the RMB appreciates, China's foreign exchange reserves of US$1.600 billion have evaporated by US$300 billion, and are still evaporating. What's more serious is that due to the appreciation of the RMB, China's export costs have increased, which has hit China's exports heavily, and many companies are facing the risk of bankruptcy. Because of the bankruptcy of Chinese companies, production enterprises in Western countries can start to recover production.
2. Through high oil prices, it will drag across China's economy. The rapid development of China's economy requires a large amount of imported crude oil, while Western countries continue to increase their oil reserves, resulting in high oil prices continuing to increase the cost of China's economic construction. This is why the United States attacks Iraq and Iran: controlling oil means controlling the lifeline of the economy.
3. As the Chinese financial bubble is rising, a large amount of hot money will naturally pour into China, causing China's high-cost and high-currency economic bubble. Perhaps this is why the government will never save the market even if it is criticized by thousands of people. It is to crack down on the malicious money-making behavior of international speculative capital in China. On the other hand, it has to face the spitting of thousands of stock investors, which may cause domestic social unrest. Now, it is not worth mentioning that any Tibetan incident or boycotting the Olympics is not a matter of truth.
4. With the prospect of appreciation of the RMB, it is not uncommon to raise the stock market, raise housing prices, and then exchange it for cash, so that China can pay for their economic decline. It is not unacceptable to be cruel!
Chapter completed!