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Chapter 354 The Unpredictable Opportunity

Gu Ao: "My second requirement is that all floppy disks provided by Sony to Tiankun Entertainment in the future must be produced in the 'read-only' mode during the filling process. Players will never be allowed to rewritten the floppy disks after leaving the factory. This is to prevent players from piracy. I hope you understand."

This condition made Akio Morita hesitate for a moment, but still agreed: "This is also worth it. It may increase some costs and troubles, but there is no big problem."

Gu Ao: "Okay, then I'll say the third point. I hope that Sony promises that from 1983 to 1986, it will not authorize the production of 3.5-inch floppy disks to the public, and ensure that the production capacity of all 3.5-inch floppy disks in the world will be exclusively supplied to Tiankun Entertainment for use.

I don't want anyone in the world to have any empty disk besides me. You should be able to understand this and also to prevent piracy of the game. After all, even if the official game floppy disk is read-only, as long as there is a blank floppy disk that can be written in the world, there is a possibility that consumers can copy it privately."

This condition made Akio Morita stand up and change his previous attitude of fully cooperating: "How is this possible? How do I know how many game consoles and cassettes can you sell for Tiankun?

If you don’t have much sales, your Sony technology has been exclusively owned by you for more than 3 years! You should know that when any new technology first appeared, the sales price was the most profitable stage! You are equivalent to letting us give up the three-year profitable period.”

Gu Ao completely guessed Akio Morita's reaction. He quietly waited for the other party to vent, and then signaled him to be calm:

"President Morita, I hope you will recognize a fact. There is no three-year profit-making period now, and you can't even find a user. If I hadn't taken the initiative to explore the application scenarios of your products now, it would be possible that this thing would be in the laboratory for another 5 years."

When Gu Ao said this, he actually didn't bother to lie, because if he followed the original development trajectory of history, 3.5-inch floppy disk and floppy drive would have to be lying for 5 years.

Unfortunately, history has been changed by Gu Ao at this point in time. No matter how he said it, Akio Morita would not believe it. Instead, he would come to him because of Gu Ao and he had enough confidence in himself.

This is the prophet's paradox: if you predict that the other party will die, you actually predict it very accurately. But because the other party knew in advance that he would die, he made a precautionary wording. If he did not die, he would criticize you for not being accurate in prophecy.

Akio Morita really didn't believe it: "Gu, don't you think you are very insincere when you say such words?"

Gu Ao said compassionately: "Oh, I know. President Morita, how much I hope you notice that I am keen on the industry and have always made perfect plans. I called out to Atari, saying that when Atari was about to be finished, they would be finished. Compared with the time point I predicted, the error will not exceed half a year."

These words moved Akio Morita slightly, but then refuted: "Even if you have done everything, your words today are undoubtedly personal interests, not pure prophecy, and you no longer have a fair judgment position."

It's true.

Gu Ao was not surprised at all.

A talented person like Akio Morita cannot be convinced by the routine of "I am a time traveler, and those who believe in me will receive eternal life."

There must be practical information, and it is strict and stern, with a strong evidence.

Generally, only the time travelers who are foresighted can't handle it at all.

But, is Gu Ao an ordinary and charming time traveler?

Of course not! He is an elite among time travelers, even if he doesn't travel, he will do well.

As a senior practitioner in the Ali family, he was familiar with Professor Christensen's "The Dilemma of the Innovator" and could use it as a guide to the world.

"President Moritian, since that's the case, you forced me to convince you with other reasons. Since you don't believe in prophecy, let's review history. There is an old saying among us Chinese that we should learn from the past and from history.

In the field of data storage hardware, it is definitely not the first time that 3.5-inch floppy disks have subverted 5.25-inch floppy disks. We don’t need to think about it. We can take a look at history. In the first two times, how they subverted the more stale and old antiques.

Before 5.25 inches, there were 8 inches, and further forward was 14 inches. In the late 14-inch hard drives, what did ibm use these big guys for? They used them to make server-level mainframes at that time, there was no concept of a ‘server’.

In the mid-1960s, when 8-inches first appeared, did they initially subvert the market of the 14-inch predecessors in the mainframe field? According to your confidence, the 8-inch capacity is larger than 14-inch, the size is smaller than 14-inch, the energy consumption is lower, the storage and access speed is faster, and the 14-inch is beaten in all directions. But why do mainframe manufacturers still use 14-inch and have been conservative for five or six years?

It is because the personnel of ibm's R&D department are used to it and they don't want to cause trouble for themselves. When suppliers ask them if they have any demand, they will just say that there is no. When the marketing department hopes to force the cost to be reduced, the marketing department does not understand technology. In such a large company dominated by technology, ibm engineers can delay as much as they want. Anyway, engineers in their peers also delay like this..."

"Is there...is this happening? Don't fabricate evidence to scare me!" Akio Morita looked disbelieved.

What Gu Ao said is too old, almost 20 years ago. Sony was still selling tape recorders at that time and didn't understand computers at all, so Akio Morita really didn't understand.

"You can confirm it." Gu Ao looked leisurely.

These are the core arguments he has obtained from "The Innovator's Dilemma", a must-read innovator in the future. What's there to be afraid of?

The stubbornness of the hard disk/floppy disk industry is a benchmark for disruptive innovation. It was used by countless top business schools as negative teaching materials in later generations. Whether it is Harvard Business School or Wharton Business School, as long as the curve subverts the conservative R&D power, it must be said that the soft and hard disk industry is.

"Wait a minute, I'll call our Sony think tank for consultation." Akio Morita was very serious and started making a cross-border call, and also called the industry research think tank he knew in the United States.

After working hard for more than half an hour, I confirmed that the first point Gu Ao said was true.

"Professor Walton, please come on, yes, No. xxx Pennsylvania Street, yes, it is Professor Kissinger's residence. I have some things to verify in person in front of you later." After Morita Akio said that, he hung up the phone.

He realized that Gu Ao's words later might require experts to continue to verify on-site.

Gu Ao continued to say: "Now, I'll reveal the opportunity for you to kill 14 inches in 8": because, at that time, there was a computer model like "small" that appeared. The miniature machine needed a smaller, higher capacity, lower energy consumption, and cheaper memory. At this time, 8 inches entered the field of view.

The 8-inch patent holders refused to ** the cheaper price of 14-inches at the beginning. They firmly anchored the selling price of similar products in the old era, believing that 'our performance is stronger than them, even if our production costs are cheaper, why should we sell it cheaper? The price should not be determined by the cost, but by the value of use'. This stalemate for a long time, and the first 8-inch manufacturer gave up and agreed.

What's the result? It turns out that the production quantity and scale of small machines are more than thirty times, or even fifty times that of large machines. Although each 8-inch hard drive is aggrievedly sold at a much cheaper price than those worse 14-inch, it sold 30 times the sales volume, subverting the 14-inch country.

Eight years later, the same story happened when 5.25 inches subverted 8 inches. Because by 1975, the miniature machine was still too big and not easy to popularize. Wang An and Apple were established, followed by modore and spetrum. They were both companies that were born after 1975 and shaped the concept of 'pc/personal machine'.

Previously, the capacity of mainframes in the United States was only a thousand units, and the market capacity of small machines was tens of thousands. Needless to say, the market capacity of personal machines has reached one million. If we include computers used by governments and business offices across the United States, the 5.25-inch storage has not subverted 8-inches in the field of minicomputers. They started from lower-level PCs and were subverted at the bottom.

Now, another 8 years have passed, and a new era node is coming, and I have pointed out to you a new market home game console that is at least ten times larger than personal computer capacity. You must know that even before Atari collapsed, they sold at least 14 million game consoles in the United States. If I could take over Atari's country, what would it be in the future? 20 million units? More?

Compared with a million-level personal computer, which market would you like to start? Do you want to sell it slightly more than 5.25 inches on a mature track, squeeze out 5.25 by performance, or start a new stove and turn the table up?"

When Gu Ao said this, Akio Morita's eyes were full of shock.

He never thought about the problem like this.

But I have to say that Gu Ao's deduction is very strict and fitting.

"Papapapapapa~" As a result of the applause, Akio Morita turned around and noticed that Professor Walton, who had just been invited by him, had arrived.

Professor Walton is also a professor at Georgetown University, but he is from the business school, so he also knows Kissinger.

Georgetown's business school is not very awesome, but there is nothing better on Watsonton's three-point land. Akio Morita wants to ask someone to debate with Gu Ao and make a fuss to make sure Gu Ao did not fool him, and he can only invite him for the time being.

If you have any in-depth consultation, you can only count on remote conference calls.

"Professor Walton, what do you think he is saying?"

"I suddenly realized that this gentleman's subversive iterative understanding of the technology industry is far above me." Professor Walton's eyes flashed with a dead-like depressedness and glittering reverence.

Just kidding, Gu Ao quoted the top big guys from Harvard Business School in later generations and the most golden words of the Internet era. How could it not be able to stop the situation?

To put it bluntly, if later Internet entrepreneurs do not know Christensen and "The Dilemma of Innovators", they are not qualified to live in the world at all, and they should directly commit suicide. Living for one more day is to humiliate the average IQ of the Internet entrepreneurs group.

Akio Morita's face turned from red to white, from white to green, from green to black, from black to purple, and finally turned back to red.

Just now, he wanted to fool Gu Ao all-in, while he had three thousand harems, and he would favor whoever he wanted to favor.

In the blink of an eye, he seemed to be fooled by himself.
Chapter completed!
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