209. Imperfect metrics
"So?" Dong Qiangqiang took a sip of Jin Baker, "What indicators do you look at now?"
"First of all, I will look at a stock Bollinger Band." Duanmu clicked on the browser on the computer twice, but the browser opened and showed a blank space. "I forgot to connect to the network cable. Do you have a network?" Duanmu lowered his head and found the network cable port in the kitchen.
"Wait a minute." Dong Qiangqiang put the beer on the table and walked out of the kitchen. After a while, he walked in with a crystal port with a long net cable in his hand and threw it on the table.
After connecting to the Internet, the browser page slowly unfolded, and the beautiful K-line chart and stock price of Volkswagen stocks were presented to the two.
"There is a magical part of the German stock market. It is different from Asia and North America. They do not have the kind of brokerage institutions we commonly use in China, so there is no free stock trading software. Many platforms that report stock information for free lag behind by 15 minutes, so some surplus should be left on the trading price when placing an order. I heard that some platforms can provide real-time stock prices, but the fees are not low. I have not paid the money to try it." Duanmu lowered his head and took out an A4-sized notebook from his schoolbag. After turning a page, a stock K-line chart appeared in front of Dong Qiangqiang.
Dong Qiangqiang saw at a glance that the K-line chart on the notebook is exactly the same as the K-line chart on the computer: "Is this what you drew?"
"The yellow line above the k-line chart is the Bollinger band, and the purple line below and the dotted line in the middle are also." Duanmu said it directly without waiting for Dong Qiangqiang to ask. He drank beer and looked at Dong Qiangqiang, "What do these three Bollinger bands look like?"
"It looks like a channel." Dong Qiangqiang tilted his head and looked at it for a while, "The k-line chart you drew has been moving up and down in the Bollinger bands."
"Yes, the Bollinger Band is like a highway, and the K-line is like a car racing inside."
"Just relying on these three lines is enough?" Dong Qiangqiang looked suspicious.
Duanmu laughed: "no, no, no. This is just the first indicator. But don't underestimate these three lines, it allows us to see the activity trajectory of the stock price. These lines are lines that I calculate the values one by one based on the formula and then connect them. You can't find these contents from those free stock information websites."
"What's next?" Dong Qiangqiang had never been exposed to this kind of thing when trading stocks before. Duanmu was very talked about, and it seemed very interesting, and he couldn't help but become more interested.
"The next indicator is a heavyweight," Duanmu smiled mysteriously, "it's called rsi."
"What is that?" Dong Qiangqiang wrote three letters on the napkin in confusion.
"Its full name is tive strength index, which is translated into Chinese as the relative strength index. It was first used in the futures market in the United States. Its curve is drawn based on the ratio of the sum of the points of the price increase of a stock within a certain period of time, such as 7 or 14 days, and the sum of the rise and fall points of a stock price increase within 7 or 14 days. It is a very useful overbought and oversold indicator, which is very suitable for short-term trading, especially for the t+0 stock market in Germany."
"t+0 means that you can buy and sell the same stock first and then on the same day?" Dong Qiangqiang just made up for a lot of stock knowledge and quickly learned to sell it now. "But what is the overbought and oversold indicator?"
"First look at the RSI chart of the previous stock price of Volkswagen stocks I drew. What did you find?" Duanmu proudly turned the notebook to the next page, and Dong Qiangqiang saw a curve that kept moving up and down between 0 and 100%.
"Well, this line always changes between 0 and 1?"
"According to the theory of relative strength indicators, the RSI value of the stock price will always fluctuate between 0 and 1. Most of the time, the RSI value will be between 30% and 70%, but do you look at this, here, here, and here?" Duanmu pointed at the three red circles marked on the RSI line with his finger.
"The rsi values in these three places are all below 10%. "Dong Qiangqiang quickly found the common points of the three red circles.
"Then look at the changes in the rsi value after the red circle." Duanmu prompted.
"After the first red circle, rsi slowly... back to 30%. After the second red circle, rsi returned to 70%. After the third red circle, my God, this rsi actually rushed to 90%. " Dong Qiangqiang felt incredible.
"According to its theory, if the rsi value exceeds 80%, it means that it has reached an overbought market, which means that investors need to be careful that the stock price will fall at any time. But once the stock price is sideways below 30%, or even continues to sluggish below 10%, you must be careful that the price will suddenly rebound strongly."
"But when I was trading stocks in China, I always heard people say something like 'It will fall for a long time'. Couldn't this rsi be the same?" Dong Qiangqiang questioned.
"What people say is that a high position will fall for a long time," Duanmu explained with a smile, "There is still the second half of the sentence, a low position will rise for a long time. What I understand at this high position is that the rsi value has always been higher than 70% or even 80%, and the low position is that the rsi value has always been lower than 10%.
"So this is a technical indicator that can help us quickly determine whether it is suitable for buying stocks immediately, right?" Dong Qiangqiang looked at Duanmu, who was in a hurry and asked with a smile, "And this is Volkswagen's stock price in the past few weeks. Have you already drawn the curve chart for the past 14 days?"
Duanmu laughed and turned another page. Sure enough, the picture had been drawn long ago.
Dong Qiangqiang saw the recent rsi value of Volkswagen's stock price fluctuating around 20%, and he couldn't help but feel trembling. He pointed at the chart with his finger and looked at Duanmu and said ecstaticly: "Now is the time to buy?"
"Any technical indicators are imperfect and have a certain degree of deception," Duanmu suddenly changed his mind, "rsi is no exception. It is not enough to just look at it."
"Ah?" It turns out that it is a useless indicator to talk about it so lively. Dong Qiangqiang almost sprayed it on the notebook with a sip of wine.
"The RSSI value is calculated using the opening and closing prices. If the stock's trading price surges or plummets the day before, this value will be unstable. After all, German stocks do not have a ceiling and circuit breaker mechanism for rising and falling rates, and it is possible to rise 100% to 500% a day."
Dong Qiangqiang was speechless for a moment. He knew that German stocks did not have any restrictions on the rise and fall of stock prices.
"The second point is that there are many factors that affect the changes in stock prices. In addition to many normal factors, such as the recent financial situation of listed companies, product market risks, policy uncertainty, etc., there are also some random, implicit and unquantifiable factors that will affect the stock price, such as people's expectations."
"Is it what investors think and judge about the future of a company that you mentioned before?"
"Yes." Duanmu's expression was serious. "If the financial data of a listed company is average but it discloses some news that meets people's expectations, then the company's stock price may rise first and then fall. At this time, the stock price will lag. If this is the case, simply looking at any technical indicator is one-sided."
"Is there no other way at this time?" With Dong Qiangqiang's understanding of Duanmu, he believed that Duanmu must have an answer.
"Hehe," Duanmu smiled mysteriously, raised his head and drank the beer in the bottle, "Another bottle."
Chapter completed!